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  4. 2024
TB logo

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2024 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
10-8
nfelo Rating
158112th
Point Diff / Game
+6.35th
Net EPA / Play
+0.1166th

2024 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
WAS logo
WAS
W
37-20
+17
-4
W
23
2
DET logo
DET@
W
20-16
+4
+7.5
W
4
3
DEN logo
DEN
L
07-26
-19
-6
L
-31
4
PHI logo
PHI
W
33-16
+17
+1.5
W
22
5
ATL logo
ATL@
L
30-36
-6
+2.5
L
-1
6
NO logo
NO@
W
51-27
+24
-3.5
W
26
7
BAL logo
BAL
L
31-41
-10
+3.5
L
-6
8
ATL logo
ATL
L
26-31
-5
+1.5
L
-29
9
KC logo
KC@
L
24-30
-6
+9
W
7
10
SF logo
SF
L
20-23
-3
+6.5
W
-8
11BYE WEEK
12
NYG logo
NYG@
W
30-07
+23
-6.5
W
45
13
CAR logo
CAR@
W
26-23
+3
-6.5
L
-33
14
OAK logo
OAK
W
28-13
+15
-6.5
W
4
15
LAC logo
LAC@
W
40-17
+23
+3
W
41
16
DAL logo
DAL@
L
24-26
-2
-4.5
L
-5
17
CAR logo
CAR
W
48-14
+34
-9.5
W
29
18
NO logo
NO
W
27-19
+8
-14.5
L
-6
19
WAS logo
WAS
L
20-23
-3
-3
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.13
5th
EPA / Pass
+0.20
4th
EPA / Rush
+0.02
7th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.02
18th
EPA / Pass
+0.06
22nd
EPA / Rush
-0.05
14th
Sack EPA
-3.79
12th
Turnover EPA
-5.47
14th
Point Differential
+6.3
5th
Points For
29.0
4th
Points Against
22.7
17th
Total Yards
393.3
3rd
Passing Yards
212.1
8th
Rushing Yards
146.5
5th
Total Yards Allowed
342.2
19th
Passing Allowed
215.3
25th
Rushing Allowed
96.9
3rd

Conversions For

3rd Down
51%
1st
4th Down
64%
8th
Red Zone
67%
4th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
39%
15th
4th Down
63%
24th
Red Zone
52%
7th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.4
25th
Created
0.9
27th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.9
24th
Created
0.4
29th

Fumbles

Lost
0.6
19th
Created
0.5
13th