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  4. 2015
SF logo

San Francisco 49ers

2015 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
5-11
nfelo Rating
133830th
Point Diff / Game
-9.331st
Net EPA / Play
-0.16231st

2015 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
MIN logo
MIN
W
20-03
+17
+2.5
W
11
2
PIT logo
PIT@
L
18-43
-25
+6
L
-8
3
ARI logo
ARI@
L
07-47
-40
+7
L
-65
4
GB logo
GB
L
03-17
-14
+7.5
L
-31
5
NYG logo
NYG@
L
27-30
-3
+7.5
W
14
6
BAL logo
BAL
W
25-20
+5
+2.5
W
9
7
SEA logo
SEA
L
03-20
-17
+6.5
L
-38
8
LAR logo
LAR@
L
06-27
-21
+8
L
-120
9
ATL logo
ATL
W
17-16
+1
+9
W
21
10BYE WEEK
11
SEA logo
SEA@
L
13-29
-16
+14
L
11
12
ARI logo
ARI
L
13-19
-6
+8.5
W
52
13
CHI logo
CHI@
W
26-20
+6
+6.5
W
32
14
CLE logo
CLE@
L
10-24
-14
+2.5
L
-16
15
CIN logo
CIN
L
14-24
-10
+6.5
L
-39
16
DET logo
DET@
L
17-32
-15
+9
L
5
17
LAR logo
LAR
W
19-16
+3
+3
W
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.11
30th
EPA / Pass
-0.12
29th
EPA / Rush
-0.06
9th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.05
27th
EPA / Pass
+0.15
29th
EPA / Rush
-0.05
25th
Sack EPA
-4.92
28th
Turnover EPA
-4.14
28th
Point Differential
-9.3
31st
Points For
14.9
32nd
Points Against
24.2
17th
Total Yards
303.9
31st
Passing Yards
195.8
23rd
Rushing Yards
96.5
21st
Total Yards Allowed
387.8
29th
Passing Allowed
162.8
1st
Rushing Allowed
126.3
29th

Conversions For

3rd Down
31%
31st
4th Down
47%
21st
Red Zone
44%
31st

Conversions Against

3rd Down
39%
18th
4th Down
55%
20th
Red Zone
59%
21st

Turnovers / Game

Committed
0.9
3rd
Created
0.9
31st

Interceptions

Thrown
0.8
11th
Created
0.6
26th

Fumbles

Lost
0.2
1st
Created
0.3
30th