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  4. 2025
LAC logo

Los Angeles Chargers

2025 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
9-4
nfelo Rating
150916th
Point Diff / Game
+2.213th
Net EPA / Play
+0.04213th

2025 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
KC logo
KC
W
27-21
+6
+3
W
18
2
OAK logo
OAK@
W
20-09
+11
-3.5
W
17
3
DEN logo
DEN
W
23-20
+3
-2.5
W
-4
4
NYG logo
NYG@
L
18-21
-3
-6
L
-27
5
WAS logo
WAS
L
10-27
-17
-3
L
-13
6
MIA logo
MIA@
W
29-27
+2
-3.5
L
14
7
IND logo
IND
L
24-38
-14
-2.5
L
-8
8
MIN logo
MIN
W
37-10
+27
-3.5
W
18
9
TEN logo
TEN@
W
27-20
+7
-9.5
L
-4
10
PIT logo
PIT
W
25-10
+15
-3
W
-2
11
JAX logo
JAX@
L
06-35
-29
-3
L
-26
12BYE WEEK
13
OAK logo
OAK
W
31-14
+17
-9.5
W
7
14
PHI logo
PHI
W
22-19
+3
+1.5
W
-7
15
KC logo
KC@
12/14
-
+4.5
-
-
16
DAL logo
DAL@
12/21
-
-
-
17
HOU logo
HOU
12/28
-
-
-
18
DEN logo
DEN@
01/04
-
-
-

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.00
20th
EPA / Pass
-0.04
21st
EPA / Rush
-0.01
15th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.04
9th
EPA / Pass
-0.12
3rd
EPA / Rush
-0.03
18th
Sack EPA
-5.67
29th
Turnover EPA
-6.14
8th
Point Differential
+2.2
13th
Points For
23.0
17th
Points Against
20.8
9th
Total Yards
341.4
12th
Passing Yards
215.5
6th
Rushing Yards
125.8
9th
Total Yards Allowed
282.5
4th
Passing Allowed
161.5
7th
Rushing Allowed
109.2
14th

Conversions For

3rd Down
47%
3rd
4th Down
60%
11th
Red Zone
50%
25th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
34%
4th
4th Down
55%
17th
Red Zone
53%
8th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.3
17th
Created
1.3
10th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.8
22nd
Created
1.2
2nd

Fumbles

Lost
0.5
13th
Created
0.2
29th