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Jacksonville Jaguars

2018 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
5-11
nfelo Rating
147718th
Point Diff / Game
-4.424th
Net EPA / Play
-0.07323rd

2018 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
NYG logo
NYG@
W
20-15
+5
-3
W
1
2
NE logo
NE
W
31-20
+11
+1.5
W
23
3
TEN logo
TEN
L
06-09
-3
-10
L
-17
4
NYJ logo
NYJ
W
31-12
+19
-7.5
W
17
5
KC logo
KC@
L
14-30
-16
+3
L
-18
6
DAL logo
DAL@
L
07-40
-33
-3
L
-22
7
HOU logo
HOU
L
07-20
-13
-3.5
L
-21
8
PHI logo
PHI
L
18-24
-6
+4
L
-7
9BYE WEEK
10
IND logo
IND@
L
26-29
-3
+3
P
7
11
PIT logo
PIT
L
16-20
-4
+4
P
-16
12
BUF logo
BUF@
L
21-24
-3
-3
L
-81
13
IND logo
IND
W
06-00
+6
+4.5
W
14
14
TEN logo
TEN@
L
09-30
-21
+5.5
L
-17
15
WAS logo
WAS
L
13-16
-3
-7
L
-12
16
MIA logo
MIA@
W
17-07
+10
+3
W
98
17
HOU logo
HOU@
L
03-20
-17
+7
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.15
30th
EPA / Pass
-0.16
30th
EPA / Rush
-0.09
23rd
Def. EPA / Play
-0.07
6th
EPA / Pass
-0.01
7th
EPA / Rush
-0.09
8th
Sack EPA
-5.62
26th
Turnover EPA
-7.04
8th
Point Differential
-4.4
24th
Points For
15.3
31st
Points Against
19.8
4th
Total Yards
302.0
27th
Passing Yards
150.6
31st
Rushing Yards
107.7
20th
Total Yards Allowed
311.6
5th
Passing Allowed
166.8
5th
Rushing Allowed
117.0
20th

Conversions For

3rd Down
40%
11th
4th Down
47%
27th
Red Zone
44%
31st

Conversions Against

3rd Down
38%
14th
4th Down
25%
1st
Red Zone
50%
4th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.9
29th
Created
1.0
26th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.8
17th
Created
0.7
23rd

Fumbles

Lost
1.1
32nd
Created
0.3
28th