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  4. 2017
DEN logo

Denver Broncos

2017 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
5-11
nfelo Rating
143821st
Point Diff / Game
-5.827th
Net EPA / Play
-0.08824th

2017 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
LAC logo
LAC
W
24-21
+3
-3
P
6
2
DAL logo
DAL
W
42-17
+25
+2.5
W
20
3
BUF logo
BUF@
L
16-26
-10
-3.5
L
-12
4
OAK logo
OAK
W
16-10
+6
-3.5
W
27
5BYE WEEK
6
NYG logo
NYG
L
10-23
-13
-13.5
L
-12
7
LAC logo
LAC@
L
00-21
-21
-1
L
-14
8
KC logo
KC@
L
19-29
-10
+7
L
-20
9
PHI logo
PHI@
L
23-51
-28
+7
L
-17
10
NE logo
NE
L
16-41
-25
+7
L
-29
11
CIN logo
CIN
L
17-20
-3
-2.5
L
3
12
OAK logo
OAK@
L
14-21
-7
+4
L
-9
13
MIA logo
MIA@
L
09-35
-26
-1.5
L
-24
14
NYJ logo
NYJ
W
23-00
+23
+1
W
16
15
IND logo
IND@
W
25-13
+12
-3
W
32
16
WAS logo
WAS@
L
11-27
-16
+3
L
-20
17
KC logo
KC
L
24-27
-3
-3
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.16
29th
EPA / Pass
-0.18
31st
EPA / Rush
-0.08
16th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.08
9th
EPA / Pass
-0.02
16th
EPA / Rush
-0.22
1st
Sack EPA
-5.33
27th
Turnover EPA
-10.18
2nd
Point Differential
-5.8
27th
Points For
18.1
26th
Points Against
23.9
22nd
Total Yards
324.3
18th
Passing Yards
194.8
19th
Rushing Yards
115.8
12th
Total Yards Allowed
290.0
1st
Passing Allowed
181.9
10th
Rushing Allowed
89.4
5th

Conversions For

3rd Down
39%
15th
4th Down
35%
26th
Red Zone
39%
32nd

Conversions Against

3rd Down
32%
2nd
4th Down
33%
7th
Red Zone
59%
25th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
2.0
31st
Created
1.2
21st

Interceptions

Thrown
1.4
31st
Created
0.6
25th

Fumbles

Lost
0.6
23rd
Created
0.6
14th