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  4. 2011
BUF logo

Buffalo Bills

2011 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
6-10
nfelo Rating
143725th
Point Diff / Game
-3.922nd
Net EPA / Play
-0.06823rd

2011 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
KC logo
KC@
W
41-07
+34
+4
W
23
2
OAK logo
OAK
W
38-35
+3
-3.5
L
-2
3
NE logo
NE
W
34-31
+3
+7
W
25
4
CIN logo
CIN@
L
20-23
-3
-3
L
-10
5
PHI logo
PHI
W
31-24
+7
+3
W
7
6
NYG logo
NYG@
L
24-27
-3
+3
P
3
7BYE WEEK
8
WAS logo
WAS
W
23-00
+23
-4
W
13
9
NYJ logo
NYJ
L
11-27
-16
-2.5
L
-14
10
DAL logo
DAL@
L
07-44
-37
+4.5
L
-20
11
MIA logo
MIA@
L
08-35
-27
+3
L
-26
12
NYJ logo
NYJ@
L
24-28
-4
+9.5
W
16
13
TEN logo
TEN
L
17-23
-6
-1
L
-22
14
LAC logo
LAC@
L
10-37
-27
+7
L
-22
15
MIA logo
MIA
L
23-30
-7
+1
L
-8
16
DEN logo
DEN
W
40-14
+26
+3
W
11
17
NE logo
NE@
L
21-49
-28
+10.5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.02
17th
EPA / Pass
-0.03
19th
EPA / Rush
+0.01
6th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.05
26th
EPA / Pass
+0.06
21st
EPA / Rush
+0.04
31st
Sack EPA
-2.22
1st
Turnover EPA
-7.82
10th
Point Differential
-3.9
22nd
Points For
23.3
13th
Points Against
27.1
30th
Total Yards
351.6
14th
Passing Yards
196.4
15th
Rushing Yards
120.2
14th
Total Yards Allowed
371.3
25th
Passing Allowed
121.7
1st
Rushing Allowed
139.1
28th

Conversions For

3rd Down
32%
28th
4th Down
41%
16th
Red Zone
53%
11th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
40%
21st
4th Down
69%
31st
Red Zone
63%
32nd

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.9
26th
Created
1.9
6th

Interceptions

Thrown
1.6
31st
Created
1.3
5th

Fumbles

Lost
0.4
2nd
Created
0.6
12th