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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ chargers week 1, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIN logo
MINVikings
-
17
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
74°F
7 mph
24
LACChargers
-
LAC logo
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
74°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
10
0
0
17
Chargers
7
0
7
10
24

Spread

MIN logo
+9

Total

UNDER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
187
407
Total Plays
43
77
Yards / Play
4.3
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.07
Passing Yards
28
330
Comp/Att
7/15(47%)
33/48(69%)
Yards / Pass
1.9
6.9
EPA / Pass
-0.79
+0.13
Rushing Yards
159
77
Rush Attempts
26
27
Yards / Rush
6.1
2.9
EPA / Rush
+0.19
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
10
31
Passing 1st downs
3
21
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
5
3rd Down %
36%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.24
-7.11
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-11
-5
Sack EPA
-2.29
-2.91
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
78
26
Penalty EPA
-6.73
-2.85

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0

Win Probability

Market77.7%
Model77.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+234
Home nfelo
1,632
Away nfelo
1,488
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+6.0
Home QB Adjustment
+4.4
Away QB Adjustment
-1.6
Market Regression
+8.9
Final Difference
216.8
Model Spread
-9.0

Quarterbacks

D. McNabb headshot

D. McNabb

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-1.6
Value
Ptile
10/03
-1.6
39
10/10
-1.9
38
10/17
-3.5
26
10/24
-6.1
13
10/31
-4.1
24
11/15
-2.2
34
11/21
1.9
60
11/28
-4.3
21
12/05
-3.2
28
12/12
3.1
70
P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+4.4
Value
Ptile
10/24
2.8
67
10/31
6.1
88
11/07
5.0
82
11/22
3.7
74
11/28
0.0
49
12/05
-1.9
37
12/12
2.2
63
12/16
7.4
92
12/26
1.7
59
01/02
-5.3
16

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Chargers Defense
Vikings logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
18
23
Yards / Game
18
16
Passing Yards / Game
17
10
Rushing Yards / Game
4
20

EPA

EPA / Play
20
29
EPA / Pass
29
28
EPA / Rush
2
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
25
Interceptions / Game
21
15
Fumbles / Game
24
31
Turnover EPA / Game
15
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
32
4th Down Efficiency
17
2
RZ Efficiency
8
26
Chargers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Chargers logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
5
31
Yards / Game
6
20
Passing Yards / Game
16
26
Rushing Yards / Game
16
10

EPA

EPA / Play
4
28
EPA / Pass
4
31
EPA / Rush
12
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
5
Interceptions / Game
25
31
Fumbles / Game
12
4
Turnover EPA / Game
7
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
29
4th Down Efficiency
20
26
RZ Efficiency
10
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/31
-10
L
L
O
11/07
3
W
L
O
11/14
-14
L
L
U
11/21
-28
L
L
U
11/28
4
W
W
U
12/05
24
W
W
O
12/13
-18
L
L
U
12/20
-26
L
L
O
12/28
10
W
W
U
01/02
-7
L
L
U
LAC logo

Chargers

7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/24
-3
L
L
U
10/31
8
W
W
O
11/07
6
W
W
O
11/22
21
W
W
U
11/28
22
W
W
P
12/05
-15
L
L
U
12/12
31
W
W
U
12/16
27
W
W
U
12/26
-14
L
L
O
01/02
5
W
P
O