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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ texans week 12, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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TEN logo
TENTitans
5-5
0
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
20
HOUTexans
4-6
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
0
0
0
0
Texans
0
14
3
3
20

Spread

HOU logo
-5

Total

UNDER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
162
346
Total Plays
44
76
Yards / Play
3.7
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.43
+0.03
Passing Yards
138
158
Comp/Att
17/31(55%)
25/35(71%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
4.5
EPA / Pass
-0.43
-0.02
Rushing Yards
24
188
Rush Attempts
12
39
Yards / Rush
2.0
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.45
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
9
24
Passing 1st downs
6
12
Rushing 1st downs
1
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
27%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
9
3rd Down Attempts
11
18
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Titans logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-10.89
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
--
-20
Sack EPA
-0.51
-2.03
Penalties
10
6
Penalty Yards
79
68
Penalty EPA
-11.57
-8.10

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market67.1%
Model65.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+78
Home nfelo
1,496
Away nfelo
1,522
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+70.5
Home QB Adjustment
-1.4
Away QB Adjustment
-71.9
Market Regression
-5.5
Final Difference
114.4
Model Spread
-4.5

Quarterbacks

R. Smith headshot

R. Smith

Proj. Value
-4.3
Team Elo Adj
-71.9
No recent game data available
M. Schaub headshot

M. Schaub

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-1.4
Value
Ptile
09/12
-6.1
12
09/19
8.7
95
09/26
-3.1
28
10/03
2.6
66
10/10
-6.7
10
10/17
6.8
90
11/01
-3.9
25
11/07
-0.2
48
11/14
7.2
91
11/21
2.4
65

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Texans Defense
Titans logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
16
29
Yards / Game
28
29
Passing Yards / Game
29
30
Rushing Yards / Game
17
14

EPA

EPA / Play
14
32
EPA / Pass
16
32
EPA / Rush
28
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
21
Interceptions / Game
13
23
Fumbles / Game
28
32
Turnover EPA / Game
17
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
20
4th Down Efficiency
10
32
RZ Efficiency
10
31
Texans Offense vs Titans Defense
Texans logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
11
15
Yards / Game
3
26
Passing Yards / Game
13
32
Rushing Yards / Game
7
20

EPA

EPA / Play
2
21
EPA / Pass
5
22
EPA / Rush
4
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
26
Interceptions / Game
7
11
Fumbles / Game
3
31
Turnover EPA / Game
29
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
29
4th Down Efficiency
14
7
RZ Efficiency
5
3

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/12
25
W
W
O
09/19
-8
L
L
U
09/26
19
W
W
U
10/03
-6
L
L
O
10/10
7
W
W
O
10/18
27
W
W
U
10/24
18
W
W
O
10/31
-8
L
L
O
11/14
-12
L
L
O
11/21
-3
L
L
U
HOU logo

Texans

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/12
10
W
W
O
09/19
3
W
W
O
09/26
-14
L
L
U
10/03
7
W
W
O
10/10
-24
L
L
U
10/17
4
W
L
O
11/01
-13
L
L
U
11/07
-6
L
L
O
11/14
-7
L
L
O
11/21
-3
L
W
O