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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ texans week 8, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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TEN logo
TENTitans
4-2
17
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
10
HOUTexans
1-4
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
7
7
3
17
Texans
0
3
0
7
10

Spread

TEN logo
-1

Total

UNDER
39

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
354
161
Total Plays
58
51
Yards / Play
6.1
3.2
EPA / Play
-0.09
-0.31
Passing Yards
40
118
Comp/Att
6/10(60%)
17/30(57%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
3.9
EPA / Pass
-1.06
-0.42
Rushing Yards
314
43
Rush Attempts
45
18
Yards / Rush
7.0
2.4
EPA / Rush
+0.27
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
16
10
Passing 1st downs
3
5
Rushing 1st downs
13
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
33%
14%
3rd Down Conversions
4
2
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Titans logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-6.44
+1.48
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-15
-34
Sack EPA
-4.25
-5.44
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
35
45
Penalty EPA
-3.00
-4.51

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TEN logo
TENTitansFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market52.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-42
Home nfelo
1,382
Away nfelo
1,502
Home Field
+35.3
Base HFA
+39.3
Divisional Adj
-17.7
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+43.3
Home QB Adjustment
-12.3
Away QB Adjustment
-55.6
Market Regression
+0.1
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0

Quarterbacks

M. Willis headshot

M. Willis

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-55.6
No recent game data available
D. Mills headshot

D. Mills

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-12.3
Value
Ptile
12/19
-2.2
36
12/26
3.7
79
01/02
-5.3
17
01/09
5.7
87
09/11
-0.4
49
09/18
-7.0
9
09/25
-2.5
32
10/02
-2.8
29
10/09
-3.3
26
10/23
1.6
64

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Texans Defense
Titans logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
28
27
Yards / Game
30
30
Passing Yards / Game
24
17
Rushing Yards / Game
13
32

EPA

EPA / Play
25
12
EPA / Pass
23
13
EPA / Rush
26
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
18
Interceptions / Game
9
7
Fumbles / Game
11
10
Turnover EPA / Game
13
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
14
4th Down Efficiency
14
26
RZ Efficiency
6
19
Texans Offense vs Titans Defense
Texans logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
30
12
Yards / Game
31
23
Passing Yards / Game
22
32
Rushing Yards / Game
31
1

EPA

EPA / Play
31
16
EPA / Pass
31
28
EPA / Rush
31
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
6
Interceptions / Game
31
13
Fumbles / Game
20
14
Turnover EPA / Game
3
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
3
4th Down Efficiency
16
32
RZ Efficiency
28
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/23
3
W
W
U
01/02
31
W
W
U
01/09
3
W
L
O
01/22
-3
L
L
U
09/11
-1
L
L
U
09/19
-34
L
L
O
09/25
2
W
W
O
10/02
7
W
W
U
10/09
4
W
W
U
10/23
9
W
W
U
HOU logo

Texans

3-6-1
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/19
14
W
W
O
12/26
12
W
W
O
01/02
-16
L
L
U
01/09
-3
L
W
O
09/11
0
T
W
U
09/18
-7
L
W
U
09/25
-3
L
P
O
10/02
-10
L
L
O
10/09
7
W
W
U
10/23
-18
L
L
O