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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ texans week 4, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TEN logo
TENTitans
1-2
14
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
38
HOUTexans
3-0
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
7
0
7
14
Texans
14
0
8
4
26

Spread

HOU logo
-13

Total

OVER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
325
297
Total Plays
60
59
Yards / Play
5.4
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.31
+0.10
Passing Yards
167
--
Comp/Att
17/27(63%)
20/28(71%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
--
EPA / Pass
-0.69
+0.36
Rushing Yards
158
95
Rush Attempts
29
31
Yards / Rush
5.4
3.1
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
17
16
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
33%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Titans logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-23.24
--
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-26
--
Sack EPA
-11.06
--
Penalties
7
1
Penalty Yards
73
--
Penalty EPA
-13.90
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-12.5
Current
-13.0
Model
-11.5

Win Probability

Market84.9%
Model82.6%
Spread Pick
TEN logo
Titans+13.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+0.3%
Cover Probability
51.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+207
Home nfelo
1,638
Away nfelo
1,467
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+1.5
Home QB Adjustment
+16.8
Away QB Adjustment
+15.3
Market Regression
+6.4
Final Difference
270.4
Model Spread
-11.5

Quarterbacks

J. Locker headshot

J. Locker

Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
+15.3
Value
Ptile
09/09
0.6
53
09/16
-1.7
38
09/23
11.1
98
M. Schaub headshot

M. Schaub

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+16.8
Value
Ptile
10/02
1.2
61
10/09
-1.5
40
10/16
-1.3
42
10/23
7.1
91
10/30
1.2
61
11/06
-1.5
40
11/13
3.6
75
09/09
1.3
59
09/16
1.6
60
09/23
4.4
78

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Texans Defense
Titans logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
23
9
Yards / Game
26
7
Passing Yards / Game
25
26
Rushing Yards / Game
21
6

EPA

EPA / Play
28
6
EPA / Pass
28
4
EPA / Rush
23
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
28
Interceptions / Game
18
16
Fumbles / Game
23
8
Turnover EPA / Game
8
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
2
4th Down Efficiency
27
3
RZ Efficiency
22
10
Texans Offense vs Titans Defense
Texans logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
11
32
Yards / Game
6
25
Passing Yards / Game
20
27
Rushing Yards / Game
8
23

EPA

EPA / Play
11
24
EPA / Pass
9
23
EPA / Rush
14
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
11
Interceptions / Game
11
5
Fumbles / Game
1
31
Turnover EPA / Game
28
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
22
4th Down Efficiency
10
9
RZ Efficiency
14
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

5-5
SU
3-5-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/20
-6
L
P
U
11/27
6
W
W
U
12/04
6
W
W
U
12/11
-5
L
L
U
12/18
-14
L
L
U
12/24
6
W
L
O
01/01
1
W
P
O
09/09
-21
L
L
U
09/16
-28
L
L
O
09/23
3
W
W
O
HOU logo

Texans

6-4
SU
7-2-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/04
7
W
W
U
12/11
1
W
W
O
12/18
-15
L
L
U
12/22
-3
L
L
U
01/01
-1
L
P
O
01/07
21
W
W
O
01/15
-7
L
W
U
09/09
20
W
W
U
09/16
20
W
W
U
09/23
6
W
W
O