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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ saints week 1, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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TEN logo
TENTitans
-
15
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0
16
NOSaints
-
NO logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
6
3
0
6
15
Saints
3
3
10
0
16

Spread

TEN logo
+3

Total

UNDER
41

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
Saints logo
Total Yards
285
351
Total Plays
59
64
Yards / Play
4.8
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.22
-0.25
Passing Yards
181
282
Comp/Att
16/34(47%)
23/33(70%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
8.5
EPA / Pass
-0.35
+0.11
Rushing Yards
104
69
Rush Attempts
22
27
Yards / Rush
4.7
2.6
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.50
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
Saints logo
1st Downs
16
15
Passing 1st downs
8
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
17%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
0%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Titans logo
Saints logo
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-9.69
-9.31
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-17
-23
Sack EPA
-3.04
-5.49
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
45
45
Penalty EPA
-5.50
-5.32

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+116
Home nfelo
1,530
Away nfelo
1,457
Home Field
+42.4
Base HFA
+42.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+0.5
Home QB Adjustment
+9.0
Away QB Adjustment
+8.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+8.5
Value
Ptile
09/25
1.0
59
10/02
-1.3
44
10/09
-6.5
11
10/23
-4.8
19
11/13
3.3
77
11/17
3.6
79
11/27
2.4
72
12/04
-3.0
28
12/11
-2.4
33
12/18
-5.7
14
D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+9.0
Value
Ptile
10/23
2.3
71
10/30
-9.0
4
11/06
0.2
54
11/13
1.8
66
11/20
5.5
87
11/27
3.2
77
12/04
-0.1
52
12/08
-6.6
11
12/18
-0.5
49
12/24
-8.8
4

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Saints Defense
Titans logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
27
6
Yards / Game
28
13
Passing Yards / Game
18
16
Rushing Yards / Game
18
22

EPA

EPA / Play
16
3
EPA / Pass
21
5
EPA / Rush
13
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
24
Interceptions / Game
10
3
Fumbles / Game
6
8
Turnover EPA / Game
29
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
4
4th Down Efficiency
11
3
RZ Efficiency
28
9
Saints Offense vs Titans Defense
Saints logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
10
15
Yards / Game
13
17
Passing Yards / Game
4
19
Rushing Yards / Game
21
14

EPA

EPA / Play
19
28
EPA / Pass
14
30
EPA / Rush
24
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
4
Interceptions / Game
10
32
Fumbles / Game
10
13
Turnover EPA / Game
26
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
18
4th Down Efficiency
22
26
RZ Efficiency
18
1

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

2-8
SU
4-4-2
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/06
-3
L
W
U
11/13
7
W
W
U
11/17
10
W
W
O
11/27
-4
L
L
U
12/04
-25
L
L
O
12/11
-14
L
L
O
12/18
-3
L
P
U
12/24
-5
L
L
U
12/29
-14
L
P
U
01/07
-4
L
W
U
NO logo

Saints

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
1-9
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/30
24
W
W
U
11/07
-14
L
L
U
11/13
-10
L
L
U
11/20
7
W
W
O
11/27
-13
L
L
U
12/05
-1
L
W
U
12/18
3
W
L
U
12/24
7
W
W
U
01/01
10
W
W
U
01/08
-3
L
L
U