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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ raiders week 12, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TEN logo
TENTitans
4-6
23
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
58°F
5 mph
19
OAKRaiders
4-6
OAK logo
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
58°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
3
3
7
10
23
Raiders
3
6
3
7
19

Spread

TEN logo
-2.5

Total

PUSH
42
P

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
426
353
Total Plays
73
55
Yards / Play
5.8
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.12
+0.04
Passing Yards
312
--
Comp/Att
30/42(71%)
19/32(59%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
--
EPA / Pass
+0.43
+0.06
Rushing Yards
114
93
Rush Attempts
29
23
Yards / Rush
3.9
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
16
14
Rushing 1st downs
4
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
56%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
10
3
3rd Down Attempts
18
10
Red Zone %
25%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Titans logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.88
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-8
--
Sack EPA
-2.40
--
Penalties
10
4
Penalty Yards
100
50
Penalty EPA
-10.91
-7.81

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TEN logo
TENTitansFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-50
Home nfelo
1,399
Away nfelo
1,405
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-106.2
Home QB Adjustment
-93.6
Away QB Adjustment
+12.6
Market Regression
-27.2
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+12.6
Value
Ptile
11/15
-3.1
29
11/25
-4.9
20
12/02
-0.4
47
12/09
-2.0
35
12/16
-4.6
21
12/23
-1.3
40
12/30
1.4
60
10/06
-0.5
47
10/13
-5.6
17
11/14
3.3
72
M. McGloin headshot

M. McGloin

Proj. Value
-4.5
Team Elo Adj
-93.6
Value
Ptile
11/17
1.0
57

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Raiders Defense
Titans logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
18
29
Yards / Game
21
21
Passing Yards / Game
15
30
Rushing Yards / Game
14
11

EPA

EPA / Play
16
26
EPA / Pass
13
32
EPA / Rush
12
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
11
Interceptions / Game
18
31
Fumbles / Game
5
11
Turnover EPA / Game
20
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
28
4th Down Efficiency
7
6
RZ Efficiency
9
22
Raiders Offense vs Titans Defense
Raiders logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
24
16
Yards / Game
23
14
Passing Yards / Game
30
8
Rushing Yards / Game
11
19

EPA

EPA / Play
24
22
EPA / Pass
24
15
EPA / Rush
16
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
23
Interceptions / Game
24
22
Fumbles / Game
27
1
Turnover EPA / Game
9
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
6
4th Down Efficiency
10
27
RZ Efficiency
5
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/08
7
W
W
U
09/15
-6
L
W
O
09/22
3
W
P
U
09/29
25
W
W
O
10/06
-9
L
L
O
10/13
-7
L
W
U
10/20
-14
L
L
O
11/03
7
W
W
O
11/10
-2
L
L
O
11/14
-3
L
L
O
OAK logo

Raiders

4-6
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/08
-4
L
W
U
09/15
10
W
W
U
09/23
-16
L
P
O
09/29
-10
L
L
U
10/06
10
W
W
U
10/13
-17
L
L
U
10/27
3
W
W
U
11/03
-29
L
L
O
11/10
-4
L
W
O
11/17
5
W
W
O