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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ rams week 10, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
3-5
7
TBD
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
68°F
0
33
LARRams
6-2
LAR logo
TBD
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
68°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
7
0
0
7
Rams
3
6
21
3
33

Spread

LAR logo
-13

Total

UNDER
45

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
283
443
Total Plays
64
66
Yards / Play
4.4
6.7
EPA / Play
-0.38
+0.08
Passing Yards
194
339
Comp/Att
18/36(50%)
26/38(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
8.9
EPA / Pass
-0.48
+0.18
Rushing Yards
89
104
Rush Attempts
25
25
Yards / Rush
3.6
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.20
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
17
19
Passing 1st downs
9
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
5
--
3rd Down %
33%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
0%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-20.09
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-27
-22
Sack EPA
-12.92
-5.01
Penalties
8
10
Penalty Yards
60
86
Penalty EPA
-6.07
-11.14

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAR logo
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-11.5
Current
-13.0
Model
-13.0

Win Probability

Market84.9%
Model84.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+343
Home nfelo
1,595
Away nfelo
1,436
Home Field
+76.7
Base HFA
+56.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+107.5
Home QB Adjustment
+27.8
Away QB Adjustment
-79.6
Market Regression
-5.1
Final Difference
300.0
Model Spread
-13.0

Quarterbacks

T. Savage headshot

T. Savage

Proj. Value
-4.6
Team Elo Adj
-79.6
Value
Ptile
12/24
-4.5
16
01/01
-7.3
7
09/10
-10.9
2
11/05
-5.2
18
J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.6
Team Elo Adj
+27.8
Value
Ptile
12/24
-12.7
1
01/01
-10.6
2
09/10
4.0
80
09/17
-3.7
26
09/21
8.5
94
10/01
1.7
65
10/08
-5.2
19
10/15
-3.4
28
10/22
1.5
63
11/05
8.0
94

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Rams Defense
Texans logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
17
12
Yards / Game
20
17
Passing Yards / Game
12
11
Rushing Yards / Game
13
27

EPA

EPA / Play
21
7
EPA / Pass
25
5
EPA / Rush
12
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
24
Interceptions / Game
27
7
Fumbles / Game
28
3
Turnover EPA / Game
4
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
14
4th Down Efficiency
13
27
RZ Efficiency
20
24
Rams Offense vs Texans Defense
Rams logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
3
32
Yards / Game
8
20
Passing Yards / Game
13
22
Rushing Yards / Game
7
12

EPA

EPA / Play
6
30
EPA / Pass
8
25
EPA / Rush
7
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
2
Interceptions / Game
1
18
Fumbles / Game
30
31
Turnover EPA / Game
21
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
5
4th Down Efficiency
22
27
RZ Efficiency
15
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/07
13
W
W
O
01/14
-18
L
L
O
09/10
-22
L
L
U
09/14
4
W
W
U
09/24
-3
L
W
O
10/01
43
W
W
O
10/08
-8
L
L
O
10/15
16
W
W
O
10/29
-3
L
W
O
11/05
-6
L
L
U
LAR logo

Rams

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/24
-1
L
L
O
01/01
-38
L
L
O
09/10
37
W
W
O
09/17
-7
L
L
O
09/21
2
W
L
O
10/01
5
W
W
O
10/08
-6
L
L
U
10/15
10
W
W
O
10/22
33
W
W
U
11/05
34
W
W
O