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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ raiders week 2, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
1-0
30
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
67°F
16 mph
14
OAKRaiders
0-1
OAK logo
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
67°F
16 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
14
3
10
3
30
Raiders
0
0
0
14
14

Spread

HOU logo
-3

Total

OVER
41

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
327
364
Total Plays
65
59
Yards / Play
5.0
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.15
-0.21
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
14/19(74%)
27/42(64%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.64
-0.40
Rushing Yards
188
101
Rush Attempts
46
17
Yards / Rush
4.1
5.9
EPA / Rush
+0.04
+0.20
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
20
22
Passing 1st downs
9
16
Rushing 1st downs
9
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
60%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
9
2
3rd Down Attempts
15
9
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-20.71
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
85
24
Penalty EPA
-9.12
-3.76

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model53.1%
Spread Pick
OAK logo
Raiders+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+8.4%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+17
Home nfelo
1,408
Away nfelo
1,456
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-9.1
Home QB Adjustment
-4.7
Away QB Adjustment
+4.4
Market Regression
-8.5
Final Difference
-21.6
Model Spread
+1.5

Quarterbacks

R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+4.4
Value
Ptile
10/06
-0.5
47
10/13
-5.6
17
11/14
3.3
72
11/24
6.9
90
12/01
-1.5
42
12/08
-4.6
21
12/15
7.0
90
12/22
-4.6
21
12/29
-5.0
19
09/07
1.5
61
D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
-4.7
Value
Ptile
09/07
-0.5
47

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Raiders Defense
Texans logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
14
32
Yards / Game
16
20
Passing Yards / Game
32
10
Rushing Yards / Game
5
22

EPA

EPA / Play
19
25
EPA / Pass
17
27
EPA / Rush
14
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
26
Interceptions / Game
11
27
Fumbles / Game
19
30
Turnover EPA / Game
16
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
14
4th Down Efficiency
6
13
RZ Efficiency
15
16
Raiders Offense vs Texans Defense
Raiders logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
31
6
Yards / Game
32
16
Passing Yards / Game
29
23
Rushing Yards / Game
32
9

EPA

EPA / Play
32
2
EPA / Pass
31
2
EPA / Rush
32
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
27
Interceptions / Game
19
3
Fumbles / Game
28
6
Turnover EPA / Game
3
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
2
4th Down Efficiency
3
7
RZ Efficiency
1
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/03
-3
L
L
O
11/10
-3
L
W
O
11/17
-5
L
L
O
11/24
-7
L
L
U
12/01
-3
L
W
O
12/05
-7
L
L
O
12/15
-22
L
L
U
12/22
-24
L
L
U
12/29
-6
L
W
U
09/07
11
W
W
U
OAK logo

Raiders

1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/03
-29
L
L
O
11/10
-4
L
W
O
11/17
5
W
W
O
11/24
-4
L
L
P
11/28
-7
L
W
O
12/08
-10
L
L
O
12/15
-25
L
L
O
12/22
-13
L
L
U
12/29
-20
L
L
U
09/07
-5
L
W
U