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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ patriots week 19, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
10-7
16
TBD
Gillette Stadium
28°F
6 mph
34
NEPatriots
14-2
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
28°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
3
10
0
3
16
Patriots
14
3
7
10
34

Spread

NE logo
-16.5

Total

OVER
44

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
285
377
Total Plays
66
67
Yards / Play
4.3
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.36
-0.11
Passing Yards
180
279
Comp/Att
23/40(57%)
18/38(47%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
7.3
EPA / Pass
-0.47
-0.00
Rushing Yards
105
98
Rush Attempts
23
27
Yards / Rush
4.6
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
14
20
Passing 1st downs
8
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
19%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
14
Red Zone %
33%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
3
3
Interceptions
3
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-14.38
-15.33
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-17
-8
Sack EPA
-4.81
-3.58
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
75
50
Penalty EPA
-7.05
-6.21

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-16.0
Current
-16.5
Model
-16.5

Win Probability

Market90.4%
Model90.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+403
Home nfelo
1,695
Away nfelo
1,440
Home Field
+64.3
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+16.6
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.4
Net QB Adjustment
+47.3
Home QB Adjustment
+48.5
Away QB Adjustment
+1.2
Market Regression
+11.7
Final Difference
389.6
Model Spread
-16.5

Quarterbacks

B. Osweiler headshot

B. Osweiler

Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
+1.2
Value
Ptile
10/16
0.5
53
10/24
-2.8
28
10/30
-5.8
13
11/13
-2.0
34
11/21
-0.1
47
11/27
-3.3
24
12/04
1.1
57
12/11
-7.3
7
12/18
-9.3
3
01/07
1.6
60
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+48.5
Value
Ptile
10/23
4.3
81
10/30
6.8
89
11/13
0.4
52
11/20
5.9
86
11/27
3.8
76
12/04
4.1
79
12/12
7.0
90
12/18
-3.3
24
12/24
2.7
70
01/01
8.0
93

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Patriots Defense
Texans logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
28
1
Yards / Game
29
8
Passing Yards / Game
28
6
Rushing Yards / Game
7
3

EPA

EPA / Play
31
5
EPA / Pass
29
8
EPA / Rush
26
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
27
Interceptions / Game
25
12
Fumbles / Game
10
10
Turnover EPA / Game
11
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
4
4th Down Efficiency
29
7
RZ Efficiency
31
12
Patriots Offense vs Texans Defense
Patriots logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
3
12
Yards / Game
4
1
Passing Yards / Game
8
7
Rushing Yards / Game
12
11

EPA

EPA / Play
2
3
EPA / Pass
2
4
EPA / Rush
16
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
22
Interceptions / Game
1
13
Fumbles / Game
14
25
Turnover EPA / Game
31
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
7
4th Down Efficiency
6
3
RZ Efficiency
8
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/30
7
W
W
U
11/13
3
W
W
O
11/21
-7
L
L
O
11/27
-8
L
L
U
12/04
-8
L
L
U
12/11
5
W
W
U
12/18
1
W
L
O
12/24
2
W
L
U
01/01
-7
L
L
U
01/07
13
W
W
O
NE logo

Patriots

9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/23
11
W
W
U
10/30
16
W
W
O
11/13
-7
L
L
O
11/20
13
W
W
U
11/27
5
W
L
U
12/04
16
W
W
U
12/12
7
W
W
O
12/18
13
W
W
U
12/24
38
W
W
U
01/01
21
W
W
O