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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ colts week 15, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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HOU logo
HOUTexans
6-7
16
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0
10
INDColts
6-7
IND logo
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
3
3
10
16
Colts
0
10
0
0
10

Spread

HOU logo
+2

Total

UNDER
42

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Colts logo
Total Yards
305
190
Total Plays
68
54
Yards / Play
4.5
3.5
EPA / Play
-0.13
-0.32
Passing Yards
150
140
Comp/Att
17/28(61%)
18/32(56%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
4.4
EPA / Pass
-0.20
-0.33
Rushing Yards
155
50
Rush Attempts
37
19
Yards / Rush
4.2
2.6
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.42
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Colts logo
1st Downs
20
14
Passing 1st downs
9
10
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
33%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Colts logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-9.42
-6.16
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-23
-20
Sack EPA
-5.09
-5.59
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
48
94
Penalty EPA
-6.76
-9.79

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
IND logo
INDColtsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0

Win Probability

Market54.2%
Model54.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+40
Home nfelo
1,476
Away nfelo
1,470
Home Field
+43.9
Base HFA
+60.3
Divisional Adj
-27.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.8
Net QB Adjustment
-9.9
Home QB Adjustment
-47.9
Away QB Adjustment
-38.0
Market Regression
+13.9
Final Difference
29.3
Model Spread
-2.0

Quarterbacks

T. Yates headshot

T. Yates

Proj. Value
-5.8
Team Elo Adj
-38.0
Value
Ptile
12/04
-3.1
30
12/11
0.9
59
12/18
-4.6
21
12/22
-6.0
14
01/01
-4.9
20
01/07
-2.0
36
01/15
-6.6
11
11/22
-0.9
45
M. Hasselbeck headshot

M. Hasselbeck

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-47.9
Value
Ptile
10/11
-1.6
38
10/21
-0.6
46
10/28
2.3
64
11/04
-0.6
46
10/04
-0.5
48
10/08
2.3
67
11/22
-1.5
39
11/29
1.2
58
12/06
-7.1
7
12/13
-5.1
15

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Colts Defense
Texans logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
26
25
Yards / Game
20
27
Passing Yards / Game
10
23
Rushing Yards / Game
16
25

EPA

EPA / Play
28
14
EPA / Pass
26
18
EPA / Rush
22
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
15
Interceptions / Game
21
6
Fumbles / Game
20
15
Turnover EPA / Game
17
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
19
4th Down Efficiency
32
30
RZ Efficiency
14
26
Colts Offense vs Texans Defense
Colts logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
23
10
Yards / Game
28
3
Passing Yards / Game
20
4
Rushing Yards / Game
29
11

EPA

EPA / Play
27
3
EPA / Pass
25
4
EPA / Rush
32
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
17
Interceptions / Game
28
14
Fumbles / Game
15
22
Turnover EPA / Game
3
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
1
4th Down Efficiency
11
24
RZ Efficiency
20
19

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/04
-27
L
L
O
10/08
-7
L
L
O
10/18
11
W
W
O
10/25
-18
L
L
O
11/01
14
W
W
U
11/16
4
W
W
U
11/22
7
W
W
O
11/29
18
W
W
U
12/06
-9
L
L
O
12/13
-21
L
L
U
IND logo

Colts

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/04
3
W
L
U
10/08
7
W
W
O
10/18
-7
L
W
O
10/25
-6
L
L
U
11/02
-3
L
W
O
11/08
3
W
W
O
11/22
3
W
W
U
11/29
13
W
W
U
12/06
-35
L
L
O
12/13
-35
L
L
O