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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ bills week 13, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
6-5
21
TBD
New Era Field
47°F
8 mph
30
BUFBills
5-6
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
47°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
6
7
0
8
21
Bills
7
14
0
9
30

Spread

BUF logo
-3

Total

OVER
42

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
403
390
Total Plays
72
58
Yards / Play
5.6
6.7
EPA / Play
-0.03
+0.11
Passing Yards
275
203
Comp/Att
26/43(60%)
11/21(52%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
9.7
EPA / Pass
+0.06
+0.31
Rushing Yards
128
187
Rush Attempts
27
36
Yards / Rush
4.7
5.2
EPA / Rush
+0.13
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
21
15
Passing 1st downs
14
7
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
47%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
7
8
3rd Down Attempts
15
16
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-1.78
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-18
-8
Sack EPA
-3.07
-1.60
Penalties
10
5
Penalty Yards
--
42
Penalty EPA
--
-4.08

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+108
Home nfelo
1,526
Away nfelo
1,498
Home Field
+72.3
Base HFA
+61.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.0
Net QB Adjustment
+8.1
Home QB Adjustment
+2.4
Away QB Adjustment
-5.7
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

B. Hoyer headshot

B. Hoyer

Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-5.7
Value
Ptile
11/16
-6.2
15
11/23
-4.8
21
11/30
-4.9
21
12/07
-9.9
3
09/13
-4.9
16
10/18
5.3
83
10/25
-3.8
22
11/01
1.0
57
11/16
-6.2
10
11/29
-1.1
43
T. Taylor headshot

T. Taylor

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+2.4
Value
Ptile
09/20
-1.9
36
09/27
7.7
93
10/04
-0.0
51
10/11
1.3
61
11/08
0.4
52
11/12
-4.1
20
11/23
-3.2
28
11/29
8.6
95

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Bills Defense
Texans logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
26
15
Yards / Game
20
20
Passing Yards / Game
10
22
Rushing Yards / Game
16
16

EPA

EPA / Play
28
16
EPA / Pass
26
15
EPA / Rush
22
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
11
Interceptions / Game
21
6
Fumbles / Game
20
15
Turnover EPA / Game
17
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
23
4th Down Efficiency
32
1
RZ Efficiency
14
17
Bills Offense vs Texans Defense
Bills logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
12
10
Yards / Game
13
3
Passing Yards / Game
28
4
Rushing Yards / Game
1
11

EPA

EPA / Play
12
3
EPA / Pass
14
4
EPA / Rush
2
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
17
Interceptions / Game
5
14
Fumbles / Game
11
22
Turnover EPA / Game
32
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
1
4th Down Efficiency
24
24
RZ Efficiency
26
19

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/20
-7
L
L
P
09/27
10
W
W
U
10/04
-27
L
L
O
10/08
-7
L
L
O
10/18
11
W
W
O
10/25
-18
L
L
O
11/01
14
W
W
U
11/16
4
W
W
U
11/22
7
W
W
O
11/29
18
W
W
U
BUF logo

Bills

4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/20
-8
L
L
O
09/27
27
W
W
O
10/04
-14
L
L
U
10/11
1
W
W
U
10/18
-13
L
L
O
10/25
-3
L
L
O
11/08
16
W
W
O
11/12
5
W
W
U
11/23
-7
L
P
U
11/29
-8
L
L
O