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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ 49ers week 17, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
4-11
7
TBD
Levi's Stadium
50°F
6 mph
23
SF49ers
8-7
SF logo
TBD
Levi's Stadium
50°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
7
0
0
7
49ers
0
3
7
13
23

Spread

SF logo
-12

Total

UNDER
44

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
222
416
Total Plays
62
61
Yards / Play
3.6
6.8
EPA / Play
-0.29
+0.00
Passing Yards
136
241
Comp/Att
21/32(66%)
16/23(70%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
10.5
EPA / Pass
-0.50
+0.37
Rushing Yards
86
175
Rush Attempts
27
37
Yards / Rush
3.2
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
15
19
Passing 1st downs
6
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
33%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
50%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Texans logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.50
-3.00
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-27
-8
Sack EPA
-5.66
-1.43
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
67
111
Penalty EPA
-1.70
-9.31

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-15.0
Current
-12.0
Model
-12.0

Win Probability

Market83.4%
Model83.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+305
Home nfelo
1,587
Away nfelo
1,345
Home Field
+48.8
Base HFA
+36.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+12.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+14.4
Home QB Adjustment
-26.8
Away QB Adjustment
-41.2
Market Regression
-72.4
Final Difference
280.4
Model Spread
-12.0

Quarterbacks

D. Mills headshot

D. Mills

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-41.2
Value
Ptile
09/23
-3.9
25
10/03
-15.2
0
10/10
5.4
85
10/17
-6.2
14
10/24
-3.6
27
10/31
1.5
64
12/12
2.9
75
12/19
-2.2
36
12/26
3.7
79
T. Lance headshot

T. Lance

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-26.8
Value
Ptile
10/10
-2.6
34

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs 49ers Defense
Texans logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
30
5
Yards / Game
32
4
Passing Yards / Game
22
19
Rushing Yards / Game
32
6

EPA

EPA / Play
30
13
EPA / Pass
28
13
EPA / Rush
30
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
24
Interceptions / Game
21
26
Fumbles / Game
13
15
Turnover EPA / Game
22
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
21
4th Down Efficiency
27
5
RZ Efficiency
27
13
49ers Offense vs Texans Defense
49ers logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
15
27
Yards / Game
11
31
Passing Yards / Game
26
26
Rushing Yards / Game
7
31

EPA

EPA / Play
11
26
EPA / Pass
8
26
EPA / Rush
15
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
9
Interceptions / Game
20
8
Fumbles / Game
30
18
Turnover EPA / Game
19
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
26
4th Down Efficiency
24
20
RZ Efficiency
6
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/17
-28
L
L
U
10/24
-26
L
L
U
10/31
-16
L
W
O
11/07
-8
L
L
U
11/21
9
W
W
U
11/28
-7
L
L
U
12/05
-31
L
L
U
12/12
-20
L
L
O
12/19
14
W
W
O
12/26
12
W
W
O
SF logo

49ers

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/24
-12
L
L
O
10/31
11
W
W
O
11/07
-14
L
L
O
11/15
21
W
W
U
11/21
20
W
W
U
11/28
8
W
W
O
12/05
-7
L
L
O
12/12
3
W
W
P
12/19
18
W
W
U
12/23
-3
L
L
U