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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ texans week 6, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    Weekly confidence pool picks
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

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  • QB Rankings
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  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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NO logo
NOSaints
3-2
13
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
20
HOUTexans
2-3
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
3
3
0
13
Texans
7
10
3
0
20

Spread

HOU logo
+2

Total

UNDER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
430
297
Total Plays
78
60
Yards / Play
5.5
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.07
+0.03
Passing Yards
341
177
Comp/Att
33/51(65%)
13/27(48%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.10
-0.01
Rushing Yards
89
120
Rush Attempts
25
31
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
24
19
Passing 1st downs
13
9
Rushing 1st downs
9
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
40%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-2.54
+0.30
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-16
-22
Sack EPA
-2.68
-3.92
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
83
29
Penalty EPA
-8.74
-2.72

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0

Win Probability

Market54.7%
Model54.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-53
Home nfelo
1,409
Away nfelo
1,530
Home Field
+43.1
Base HFA
+43.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+24.9
Home QB Adjustment
+14.6
Away QB Adjustment
-10.2
Market Regression
-12.4
Final Difference
-32.8
Model Spread
+2.0

Quarterbacks

D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
-10.2
Value
Ptile
11/27
3.2
77
12/04
-0.1
52
12/08
-6.6
11
12/18
-0.5
49
12/24
-8.8
4
09/10
-1.7
39
09/18
-7.7
9
09/24
-3.8
25
10/01
-5.1
19
10/08
1.8
61
C. Stroud headshot

C. Stroud

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+14.6
Value
Ptile
09/10
-3.2
28
09/17
0.6
53
09/24
5.2
82
10/01
5.3
83
10/08
0.3
52

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Texans Defense
Saints logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
10
11
Yards / Game
13
15
Passing Yards / Game
4
6
Rushing Yards / Game
21
8

EPA

EPA / Play
19
13
EPA / Pass
14
16
EPA / Rush
24
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
15
Interceptions / Game
10
15
Fumbles / Game
10
25
Turnover EPA / Game
26
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
6
4th Down Efficiency
22
18
RZ Efficiency
18
15
Texans Offense vs Saints Defense
Texans logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
13
6
Yards / Game
15
13
Passing Yards / Game
21
16
Rushing Yards / Game
28
22

EPA

EPA / Play
14
3
EPA / Pass
11
5
EPA / Rush
27
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
24
Interceptions / Game
1
3
Fumbles / Game
13
8
Turnover EPA / Game
32
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
4
4th Down Efficiency
31
3
RZ Efficiency
16
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
0-10
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/05
-1
L
W
U
12/18
3
W
L
U
12/24
7
W
W
U
01/01
10
W
W
U
01/08
-3
L
L
U
09/10
1
W
L
U
09/18
3
W
P
U
09/24
-1
L
L
U
10/01
-17
L
L
U
10/08
34
W
W
U
HOU logo

Texans

4-6
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/11
-4
L
W
O
12/18
-6
L
W
O
12/24
5
W
W
U
01/01
-28
L
L
U
01/08
1
W
W
O
09/10
-16
L
L
U
09/17
-11
L
L
O
09/24
20
W
W
O
10/01
24
W
W
U
10/08
-2
L
W
U