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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. ravens @ raiders week 17, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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BAL logo
BALRavens
8-7
21
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
54°F
6 mph
13
OAKRaiders
5-10
OAK logo
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
54°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
7
7
0
7
21
Raiders
0
10
3
0
13

Spread

OAK logo
+10

Total

UNDER
39

Game Statistics

General
Ravens logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
330
325
Total Plays
58
62
Yards / Play
5.7
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.13
-0.04
Passing Yards
90
274
Comp/Att
11/19(58%)
27/39(69%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
7.0
EPA / Pass
-0.20
+0.01
Rushing Yards
240
51
Rush Attempts
35
20
Yards / Rush
6.9
2.5
EPA / Rush
+0.30
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
Ravens logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
16
20
Passing 1st downs
6
14
Rushing 1st downs
10
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
43%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Ravens logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-10.30
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-12
-8
Sack EPA
-4.70
-6.38
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
37
30
Penalty EPA
-3.55
-3.42

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-9.0

Win Probability

Market80.1%
Model78.4%
Spread Pick
OAK logo
Raiders+10.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+6.6%
Cover Probability
51.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-195
Home nfelo
1,338
Away nfelo
1,620
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-20.2
Home QB Adjustment
-17.1
Away QB Adjustment
+3.1
Market Regression
+6.3
Final Difference
-224.0
Model Spread
+9.0

Quarterbacks

J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+3.1
Value
Ptile
10/18
7.0
89
11/01
2.0
63
11/08
-8.7
6
11/16
-2.8
32
11/22
0.9
55
11/29
0.8
55
12/07
-9.9
3
12/13
1.4
59
12/20
6.9
88
12/27
-4.3
23
C. Frye headshot

C. Frye

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-17.1
Value
Ptile
11/05
-1.6
40
11/12
-0.4
48
11/19
-1.6
40
11/26
-11.5
2
12/03
2.0
64
12/31
1.0
56
09/09
-11.5
1
10/12
-4.3
19
12/20
-2.8
33
12/27
-6.1
14

Team Matchup Ranks

Ravens Offense vs Raiders Defense
Ravens logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
11
23
Yards / Game
14
25
Passing Yards / Game
19
15
Rushing Yards / Game
4
29

EPA

EPA / Play
11
26
EPA / Pass
14
27
EPA / Rush
4
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
3
Interceptions / Game
13
31
Fumbles / Game
6
23
Turnover EPA / Game
27
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
7
4th Down Efficiency
24
28
RZ Efficiency
15
10
Raiders Offense vs Ravens Defense
Raiders logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
31
2
Yards / Game
31
2
Passing Yards / Game
26
14
Rushing Yards / Game
21
3

EPA

EPA / Play
29
4
EPA / Pass
30
3
EPA / Rush
22
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
17
Interceptions / Game
22
5
Fumbles / Game
32
11
Turnover EPA / Game
11
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
8
4th Down Efficiency
18
10
RZ Efficiency
29
7

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BAL logo

Ravens

5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/18
-2
L
W
O
11/01
23
W
W
U
11/08
-10
L
L
U
11/16
16
W
W
U
11/22
-2
L
L
U
11/29
3
W
L
O
12/07
-13
L
L
U
12/13
45
W
W
O
12/20
24
W
W
U
12/27
-3
L
P
P
OAK logo

Raiders

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/18
4
W
W
U
10/25
-38
L
L
O
11/01
-8
L
W
U
11/15
-6
L
L
U
11/22
3
W
W
O
11/26
-17
L
L
U
12/06
3
W
W
O
12/13
-21
L
L
O
12/20
1
W
W
O
12/27
-14
L
L
U