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  1. nfelo...
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  3. ravens @ jets week 1, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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BAL logo
BALRavens
-
10
TBD
MetLife Stadium
67°F
11 mph
9
NYJJets
-
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
67°F
11 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
0
7
3
0
10
Jets
3
3
0
3
9

Spread

BAL logo
+1

Total

UNDER
36.5

Game Statistics

General
Ravens logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
282
176
Total Plays
75
44
Yards / Play
3.8
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.15
-0.29
Passing Yards
233
60
Comp/Att
20/38(53%)
10/21(48%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
2.9
EPA / Pass
-0.13
-0.60
Rushing Yards
49
116
Rush Attempts
35
21
Yards / Rush
1.4
5.5
EPA / Rush
-0.46
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
Ravens logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
20
6
Passing 1st downs
12
2
Rushing 1st downs
2
3
Penalty 1st downs
6
1
3rd Down %
58%
9%
3rd Down Conversions
11
1
3rd Down Attempts
19
11
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Ravens logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-17.14
-4.23
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-15
-14
Sack EPA
-7.15
-4.34
Penalties
5
14
Penalty Yards
38
125
Penalty EPA
-4.78
-14.72

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYJ logo
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market52.2%
Model52.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+34
Home nfelo
1,555
Away nfelo
1,585
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+1.4
Home QB Adjustment
-8.1
Away QB Adjustment
-9.5
Market Regression
-50.1
Final Difference
15.3
Model Spread
-1.0

Quarterbacks

J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-9.5
Value
Ptile
11/16
-2.8
32
11/22
0.9
55
11/29
0.8
55
12/07
-9.9
3
12/13
1.4
59
12/20
6.9
88
12/27
-4.3
23
01/03
-7.2
10
01/10
-7.3
9
01/16
-5.3
18
M. Sanchez headshot

M. Sanchez

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-8.1
Value
Ptile
11/15
-3.7
25
11/22
-11.3
2
11/29
-2.5
34
12/03
-2.1
37
12/20
-7.2
10
12/27
-4.4
22
01/03
-3.4
28
01/09
3.1
70
01/17
-5.1
20
01/24
2.4
65

Team Matchup Ranks

Ravens Offense vs Jets Defense
Ravens logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
13
5
Yards / Game
22
3
Passing Yards / Game
15
20
Rushing Yards / Game
16
5

EPA

EPA / Play
10
8
EPA / Pass
10
9
EPA / Rush
18
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
29
Interceptions / Game
3
25
Fumbles / Game
17
4
Turnover EPA / Game
23
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
15
4th Down Efficiency
19
12
RZ Efficiency
22
25
Jets Offense vs Ravens Defense
Jets logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
14
3
Yards / Game
12
4
Passing Yards / Game
27
12
Rushing Yards / Game
4
3

EPA

EPA / Play
15
6
EPA / Pass
18
8
EPA / Rush
6
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
9
Interceptions / Game
10
7
Fumbles / Game
5
7
Turnover EPA / Game
28
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
12
4th Down Efficiency
21
18
RZ Efficiency
28
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BAL logo

Ravens

6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/16
16
W
W
U
11/22
-2
L
L
U
11/29
3
W
L
O
12/07
-13
L
L
U
12/13
45
W
W
O
12/20
24
W
W
U
12/27
-3
L
P
P
01/03
8
W
L
U
01/10
19
W
W
O
01/16
-17
L
L
U
NYJ logo

Jets

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/22
-17
L
L
P
11/29
11
W
W
U
12/03
6
W
W
U
12/13
23
W
W
U
12/20
-3
L
L
U
12/27
14
W
W
O
01/03
37
W
W
O
01/09
10
W
W
O
01/17
3
W
W
U
01/24
-13
L
L
O