nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. ravens @ chiefs week 1, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

BAL logo
BALRavens
-
20
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
67°F
8 mph
27
KCChiefs
-
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
67°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
7
3
0
10
20
Chiefs
7
6
7
7
27

Spread

KC logo
-3

Total

PUSH
47
P

Game Statistics

General
Ravens logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
452
353
Total Plays
74
50
Yards / Play
6.1
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.17
Passing Yards
267
281
Comp/Att
26/41(63%)
20/28(71%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
10.0
EPA / Pass
-0.06
+0.40
Rushing Yards
185
72
Rush Attempts
32
20
Yards / Rush
5.8
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.26
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
Ravens logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
25
21
Passing 1st downs
11
15
Rushing 1st downs
13
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
50%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
9
Red Zone %
25%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Ravens logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.58
-3.80
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-6
-10
Sack EPA
-5.58
-2.73
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
64
45
Penalty EPA
-8.73
-4.01

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+88
Home nfelo
1,648
Away nfelo
1,614
Home Field
+54.6
Base HFA
+46.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+8.3
Net QB Adjustment
-0.3
Home QB Adjustment
+7.5
Away QB Adjustment
+7.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

L. Jackson headshot

L. Jackson

Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+7.8
Value
Ptile
11/05
3.6
73
11/12
-2.4
33
11/16
4.1
76
11/26
-1.7
38
12/10
5.9
86
12/17
-0.6
45
12/25
5.9
86
12/31
13.5
99
01/20
10.5
98
01/28
-1.1
43
P. Mahomes headshot

P. Mahomes

Proj. Value
+1.9
Team Elo Adj
+7.5
Value
Ptile
11/26
6.0
86
12/03
-1.8
38
12/10
0.3
51
12/17
0.1
50
12/25
-1.9
36
12/31
1.2
56
01/13
7.6
92
01/21
6.5
89
01/28
4.8
80
02/11
8.5
95

Team Matchup Ranks

Ravens Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Ravens logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
3
6
Yards / Game
1
9
Passing Yards / Game
13
17
Rushing Yards / Game
1
10

EPA

EPA / Play
1
16
EPA / Pass
1
25
EPA / Rush
1
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
15
Interceptions / Game
1
17
Fumbles / Game
15
26
Turnover EPA / Game
27
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
24
4th Down Efficiency
15
9
RZ Efficiency
1
11
Chiefs Offense vs Ravens Defense
Chiefs logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
12
8
Yards / Game
19
8
Passing Yards / Game
19
32
Rushing Yards / Game
26
1

EPA

EPA / Play
10
19
EPA / Pass
10
11
EPA / Rush
12
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
30
Interceptions / Game
14
21
Fumbles / Game
5
29
Turnover EPA / Game
22
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
20
4th Down Efficiency
6
2
RZ Efficiency
21
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BAL logo

Ravens

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/12
-2
L
L
O
11/16
14
W
W
O
11/26
10
W
W
U
12/10
6
W
L
O
12/17
16
W
W
U
12/25
14
W
W
O
12/31
37
W
W
O
01/06
-7
L
L
U
01/20
24
W
W
P
01/28
-7
L
L
U
KC logo

Chiefs

7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/03
-8
L
L
O
12/10
-3
L
L
U
12/17
10
W
P
O
12/25
-6
L
L
U
12/31
8
W
W
U
01/07
1
W
W
U
01/13
19
W
W
U
01/21
3
W
W
O
01/28
7
W
W
U
02/11
3
W
W
P