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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. ravens @ bengals week 2, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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  • QB Rankings
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BAL logo
BALRavens
1-0
10
TBD
Paycor Stadium
78°F
1 mph
15
CINBengals
0-1
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
78°F
1 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
0
0
7
3
10
Bengals
0
6
3
6
15

Spread

CIN logo
+3

Total

UNDER
39.5

Game Statistics

General
Ravens logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
259
253
Total Plays
63
67
Yards / Play
4.1
3.8
EPA / Play
-0.26
-0.16
Passing Yards
150
159
Comp/Att
17/39(44%)
16/35(46%)
Yards / Pass
3.8
4.5
EPA / Pass
-0.53
-0.07
Rushing Yards
109
94
Rush Attempts
23
31
Yards / Rush
4.7
3.0
EPA / Rush
+0.13
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
Ravens logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
14
14
Passing 1st downs
7
8
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
27%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
18
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Ravens logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
4
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-14.02
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-4
-8
Sack EPA
-0.61
+1.65
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
45
56
Penalty EPA
-4.16
-7.76

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-96
Home nfelo
1,453
Away nfelo
1,598
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+14.6
Home QB Adjustment
+4.5
Away QB Adjustment
-10.1
Market Regression
-17.8
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-10.1
Value
Ptile
11/22
0.9
55
11/29
0.8
55
12/07
-9.9
3
12/13
1.4
59
12/20
6.9
88
12/27
-4.3
23
01/03
-7.2
10
01/10
-7.3
9
01/16
-5.3
18
09/13
-3.3
27
C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+4.5
Value
Ptile
11/15
-2.0
38
11/22
0.8
55
11/29
-4.3
23
12/06
-5.9
15
12/13
-1.8
39
12/20
3.7
73
12/27
-0.9
45
01/03
-7.9
8
01/09
-4.4
23
09/12
6.8
90

Team Matchup Ranks

Ravens Offense vs Bengals Defense
Ravens logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
13
24
Yards / Game
22
14
Passing Yards / Game
15
10
Rushing Yards / Game
16
19

EPA

EPA / Play
10
28
EPA / Pass
10
20
EPA / Rush
18
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
25
Interceptions / Game
3
14
Fumbles / Game
17
17
Turnover EPA / Game
23
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
13
4th Down Efficiency
19
3
RZ Efficiency
22
6
Bengals Offense vs Ravens Defense
Bengals logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
23
3
Yards / Game
20
4
Passing Yards / Game
24
12
Rushing Yards / Game
27
3

EPA

EPA / Play
19
6
EPA / Pass
17
8
EPA / Rush
31
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
9
Interceptions / Game
24
7
Fumbles / Game
26
7
Turnover EPA / Game
6
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
12
4th Down Efficiency
5
18
RZ Efficiency
23
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BAL logo

Ravens

6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/22
-2
L
L
U
11/29
3
W
L
O
12/07
-13
L
L
U
12/13
45
W
W
O
12/20
24
W
W
U
12/27
-3
L
P
P
01/03
8
W
L
U
01/10
19
W
W
O
01/16
-17
L
L
U
09/13
1
W
W
U
CIN logo

Bengals

4-6
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/15
6
W
W
U
11/22
-3
L
L
O
11/29
9
W
L
U
12/06
10
W
L
U
12/13
-20
L
L
U
12/20
-3
L
W
O
12/27
7
W
L
U
01/03
-37
L
L
O
01/09
-10
L
L
O
09/12
-14
L
L
O