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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ steelers week 16, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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LAR logo
LARRams
2-12
0
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
36°F
4 mph
27
PITSteelers
10-4
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
36°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
0
0
0
0
Steelers
3
7
3
14
27

Spread

PIT logo
-10

Total

UNDER
33.5

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
232
377
Total Plays
63
50
Yards / Play
3.7
7.5
EPA / Play
-0.28
+0.21
Passing Yards
68
--
Comp/Att
9/24(38%)
15/22(68%)
Yards / Pass
2.8
--
EPA / Pass
-0.47
+0.17
Rushing Yards
164
169
Rush Attempts
36
28
Yards / Rush
4.6
6.0
EPA / Rush
+0.01
+0.23
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
15
17
Passing 1st downs
4
9
Rushing 1st downs
9
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
38%
14%
3rd Down Conversions
6
1
3rd Down Attempts
16
7
Red Zone %
0%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-3.92
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-23
--
Sack EPA
-4.15
--
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
21
50
Penalty EPA
-2.98
-6.63

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-16.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-12.5

Win Probability

Market79.5%
Model84.2%
Spread Pick
PIT logo
Steelers-10.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+9.9%
Cover Probability
54.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+335
Home nfelo
1,616
Away nfelo
1,314
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-62.4
Home QB Adjustment
-67.5
Away QB Adjustment
-5.1
Market Regression
-87.6
Final Difference
290.2
Model Spread
-12.5

Quarterbacks

K. Clemens headshot

K. Clemens

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-5.1
Value
Ptile
09/16
-4.8
20
11/04
1.3
60
11/18
-4.1
24
11/22
-7.4
7
12/02
-4.0
25
12/09
-3.6
28
12/16
-6.2
10
12/30
-3.5
29
12/13
-3.9
24
12/18
1.6
63
C. Batch headshot

C. Batch

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-67.5
Value
Ptile
11/11
-5.5
14
11/18
4.6
82
11/22
-5.2
17
12/02
0.2
53
11/06
-6.4
11
11/13
3.7
76
09/07
3.6
75
12/30
-0.9
42
09/26
3.6
73
10/03
-4.3
21

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Steelers Defense
Rams logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
32
1
Yards / Game
31
1
Passing Yards / Game
21
3
Rushing Yards / Game
23
8

EPA

EPA / Play
32
9
EPA / Pass
31
7
EPA / Rush
32
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
8
Interceptions / Game
3
25
Fumbles / Game
27
30
Turnover EPA / Game
13
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
19
4th Down Efficiency
24
28
RZ Efficiency
31
15
Steelers Offense vs Rams Defense
Steelers logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
21
25
Yards / Game
11
21
Passing Yards / Game
4
14
Rushing Yards / Game
13
31

EPA

EPA / Play
7
16
EPA / Pass
8
20
EPA / Rush
7
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
1
Interceptions / Game
18
23
Fumbles / Game
26
29
Turnover EPA / Game
12
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
18
4th Down Efficiency
25
29
RZ Efficiency
15
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

2-8
SU
2-7-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/16
-21
L
L
U
10/23
-27
L
L
U
10/30
10
W
W
O
11/06
-6
L
L
U
11/13
1
W
W
U
11/20
-17
L
L
U
11/27
-3
L
L
O
12/04
-26
L
L
U
12/12
-17
L
L
O
12/18
-7
L
P
U
PIT logo

Steelers

8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/09
21
W
W
O
10/16
4
W
L
U
10/23
12
W
W
O
10/30
8
W
W
U
11/06
-3
L
L
O
11/13
7
W
W
O
11/27
4
W
L
U
12/04
28
W
W
U
12/08
11
W
L
U
12/19
-17
L
L
U