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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ cardinals week 13, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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LAR logo
LARRams
7-4
38
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0
28
ARICardinals
6-5
ARI logo
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
14
3
15
32
Cardinals
7
0
7
14
28

Spread

LAR logo
-2.5

Total

OVER
49

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Cardinals logo
Total Yards
463
232
Total Plays
79
62
Yards / Play
5.9
3.7
EPA / Play
+0.15
-0.05
Passing Yards
344
140
Comp/Att
37/47(79%)
21/39(54%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
3.6
EPA / Pass
+0.39
-0.30
Rushing Yards
119
92
Rush Attempts
31
21
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.16
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Cardinals logo
1st Downs
30
18
Passing 1st downs
19
11
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
60%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
9
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Cardinals logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-7.89
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-7
-33
Sack EPA
-1.81
-8.69
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
75
21
Penalty EPA
-7.66
-4.50

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAR logo
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-57
Home nfelo
1,482
Away nfelo
1,579
Home Field
+6.7
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+34.2
Home QB Adjustment
+34.6
Away QB Adjustment
+0.4
Market Regression
-21.8
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.6
Team Elo Adj
+0.4
Value
Ptile
09/20
5.9
83
09/27
5.5
80
10/04
-0.5
43
10/11
4.0
73
10/18
-1.7
31
10/26
2.9
66
11/01
-2.7
26
11/15
-1.6
32
11/23
8.5
93
11/29
-7.2
7
K. Murray headshot

K. Murray

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+34.6
Value
Ptile
09/20
7.1
88
09/27
0.2
48
10/04
8.1
93
10/11
7.2
89
10/19
3.6
70
10/25
12.2
98
11/08
15.6
100
11/15
5.4
80
11/19
1.0
51
11/29
-2.9
24

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Rams logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
22
12
Yards / Game
17
13
Passing Yards / Game
16
11
Rushing Yards / Game
11
21

EPA

EPA / Play
26
9
EPA / Pass
20
10
EPA / Rush
24
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
22
Interceptions / Game
16
20
Fumbles / Game
19
18
Turnover EPA / Game
9
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
10
4th Down Efficiency
28
26
RZ Efficiency
18
4
Cardinals Offense vs Rams Defense
Cardinals logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
14
2
Yards / Game
6
1
Passing Yards / Game
10
3
Rushing Yards / Game
6
4

EPA

EPA / Play
15
1
EPA / Pass
22
1
EPA / Rush
3
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
23
Interceptions / Game
17
13
Fumbles / Game
23
16
Turnover EPA / Game
8
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
4
4th Down Efficiency
5
7
RZ Efficiency
9
12

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/20
18
W
W
O
09/27
-3
L
L
O
10/04
8
W
L
U
10/11
20
W
W
U
10/18
-8
L
L
U
10/26
14
W
W
U
11/01
-11
L
L
U
11/15
7
W
W
U
11/23
3
W
W
O
11/29
-3
L
L
U
ARI logo

Cardinals

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/20
15
W
W
U
09/27
-3
L
L
U
10/04
-10
L
L
U
10/11
20
W
W
U
10/19
28
W
W
U
10/25
3
W
W
O
11/08
-3
L
L
O
11/15
2
W
L
O
11/19
-7
L
L
U
11/29
-3
L
L
U