nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ bengals week 3, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

LAR logo
LARRams
1-1
16
TBD
Paycor Stadium
74°F
7 mph
19
CINBengals
0-2
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
74°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
3
3
3
7
16
Bengals
0
6
10
3
19

Spread

LAR logo
CIN logo
3
P

Total

UNDER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
292
309
Total Plays
52
74
Yards / Play
5.6
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.09
Passing Yards
221
242
Comp/Att
18/33(55%)
26/49(53%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
4.9
EPA / Pass
-0.25
-0.13
Rushing Yards
71
67
Rush Attempts
13
23
Yards / Rush
5.5
2.9
EPA / Rush
+0.12
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
15
19
Passing 1st downs
12
12
Rushing 1st downs
2
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
9%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
1
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
17
Red Zone %
25%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.70
-4.15
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-48
-17
Sack EPA
-8.58
-2.82
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
28
49
Penalty EPA
-4.73
-6.70

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+88
Home nfelo
1,558
Away nfelo
1,468
Home Field
+19.9
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-23.1
Net QB Adjustment
-22.4
Home QB Adjustment
-7.5
Away QB Adjustment
+14.8
Market Regression
-61.7
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+14.8
Value
Ptile
09/18
1.9
67
09/25
-0.8
46
10/03
-6.4
11
10/09
-0.8
46
10/16
1.2
61
10/30
1.3
61
11/06
-6.3
12
11/20
0.8
57
09/10
3.6
73
09/17
0.4
52
J. Burrow headshot

J. Burrow

Proj. Value
+1.7
Team Elo Adj
-7.5
Value
Ptile
12/04
9.6
95
12/11
-0.5
48
12/18
3.2
77
12/24
8.1
93
01/08
-0.5
48
01/15
0.9
58
01/22
6.0
89
01/29
-5.0
17
09/10
-8.0
8
09/17
1.3
58

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Bengals Defense
Rams logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
9
20
Yards / Game
7
31
Passing Yards / Game
12
30
Rushing Yards / Game
12
26

EPA

EPA / Play
11
26
EPA / Pass
7
25
EPA / Rush
8
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
7
Interceptions / Game
18
5
Fumbles / Game
3
21
Turnover EPA / Game
23
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
23
4th Down Efficiency
5
8
RZ Efficiency
8
10
Bengals Offense vs Rams Defense
Bengals logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
16
18
Yards / Game
23
18
Passing Yards / Game
9
29
Rushing Yards / Game
32
13

EPA

EPA / Play
12
21
EPA / Pass
15
19
EPA / Rush
15
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
26
Interceptions / Game
19
24
Fumbles / Game
1
30
Turnover EPA / Game
25
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
16
4th Down Efficiency
25
24
RZ Efficiency
10
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

3-7
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/20
-7
L
L
O
11/27
-16
L
W
U
12/04
-4
L
W
O
12/08
1
W
W
U
12/19
-12
L
L
U
12/25
37
W
W
O
01/01
-21
L
L
U
01/08
-3
L
W
U
09/10
17
W
W
U
09/17
-7
L
W
O
CIN logo

Bengals

7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/04
3
W
W
U
12/11
13
W
W
U
12/18
11
W
W
O
12/24
4
W
W
U
01/08
11
W
P
O
01/15
7
W
L
O
01/22
17
W
W
U
01/29
-3
L
L
U
09/10
-21
L
L
U
09/17
-3
L
L
O