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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ 49ers week 6, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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LAR logo
LARRams
4-1
16
TBD
Levi's Stadium
86°F
10 mph
24
SF49ers
2-3
SF logo
TBD
Levi's Stadium
86°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
6
3
7
16
49ers
7
14
0
3
24

Spread

SF logo
+2.5

Total

UNDER
51

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
311
390
Total Plays
57
70
Yards / Play
5.5
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.13
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
19/38(50%)
23/33(70%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
-0.09
+0.39
Rushing Yards
113
122
Rush Attempts
19
37
Yards / Rush
5.9
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.23
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
17
24
Passing 1st downs
9
16
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
33%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Rams logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.66
--
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
34
63
Penalty EPA
-4.27
-4.57

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAR logo
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model55.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-9
Home nfelo
1,570
Away nfelo
1,556
Home Field
+5.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-29.3
Home QB Adjustment
-15.6
Away QB Adjustment
+13.7
Market Regression
+7.1
Final Difference
-38.6
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.6
Team Elo Adj
+13.7
Value
Ptile
12/01
7.3
91
12/08
1.3
63
12/15
0.4
54
12/21
3.6
76
12/29
4.2
79
09/13
-1.1
36
09/20
5.9
83
09/27
5.5
80
10/04
-0.5
43
10/11
4.0
73
J. Garoppolo headshot

J. Garoppolo

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-15.6
Value
Ptile
12/08
5.9
86
12/15
-1.3
44
12/21
-8.3
8
12/29
0.5
55
01/11
-5.1
20
01/19
-4.5
22
02/02
-2.8
33
09/13
-1.1
37
09/20
-0.6
41
10/11
-13.6
1

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs 49ers Defense
Rams logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
22
17
Yards / Game
17
4
Passing Yards / Game
16
12
Rushing Yards / Game
11
8

EPA

EPA / Play
26
11
EPA / Pass
20
8
EPA / Rush
24
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
12
Interceptions / Game
16
16
Fumbles / Game
19
6
Turnover EPA / Game
9
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
3
4th Down Efficiency
28
25
RZ Efficiency
18
9
49ers Offense vs Rams Defense
49ers logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
21
2
Yards / Game
14
1
Passing Yards / Game
13
3
Rushing Yards / Game
15
4

EPA

EPA / Play
21
1
EPA / Pass
16
1
EPA / Rush
22
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
23
Interceptions / Game
30
13
Fumbles / Game
27
16
Turnover EPA / Game
2
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
4
4th Down Efficiency
28
7
RZ Efficiency
7
12

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/01
27
W
W
U
12/08
16
W
W
U
12/15
-23
L
L
O
12/21
-3
L
W
O
12/29
7
W
P
O
09/13
3
W
W
U
09/20
18
W
W
O
09/27
-3
L
L
O
10/04
8
W
L
U
10/11
20
W
W
U
SF logo

49ers

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/21
3
W
L
O
12/29
5
W
W
P
01/11
17
W
W
U
01/19
17
W
W
O
02/02
-11
L
L
U
09/13
-4
L
L
U
09/20
18
W
W
O
09/27
27
W
W
O
10/04
-5
L
L
U
10/11
-26
L
L
O