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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. raiders @ rams week 14, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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OAK logo
OAKRaiders
5-7
16
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0
17
LARRams
3-9
LAR logo
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
10
3
0
3
16
Rams
3
0
0
14
17

Spread

LAR logo
+5.5

Total

UNDER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Raiders logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
302
282
Total Plays
58
61
Yards / Play
5.2
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.03
Passing Yards
--
211
Comp/Att
11/20(55%)
22/35(63%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.0
EPA / Pass
-0.04
+0.06
Rushing Yards
165
71
Rush Attempts
38
22
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.2
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.42
Downs & Conversions
Raiders logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
17
20
Passing 1st downs
6
12
Rushing 1st downs
8
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
5
3rd Down %
38%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
25%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Raiders logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.95
-4.85
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-19
Sack EPA
--
-4.23
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
94
60
Penalty EPA
-8.21
-6.11

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
OAK logo
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market68.5%
Model65.4%
Spread Pick
LAR logo
Rams+5.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+0.8%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-71
Home nfelo
1,488
Away nfelo
1,528
Home Field
+54.3
Base HFA
+40.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-85.5
Home QB Adjustment
-80.6
Away QB Adjustment
+4.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-110.6
Model Spread
+4.0

Quarterbacks

D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+4.9
Value
Ptile
09/25
2.3
71
10/02
-0.5
48
10/10
-0.2
51
10/23
2.3
71
10/30
-9.0
4
11/06
0.2
54
11/13
1.8
66
11/20
5.5
87
11/27
3.2
77
12/04
-0.1
52
B. Mayfield headshot

B. Mayfield

Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
-80.6
Value
Ptile
11/28
-3.4
28
12/12
1.5
64
12/25
-10.4
3
01/03
-13.7
1
09/11
-2.6
31
09/18
-3.1
28
09/25
-4.5
21
10/02
-6.7
10
10/09
-6.5
11
11/20
-8.3
5

Team Matchup Ranks

Raiders Offense vs Rams Defense
Raiders logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
13
20
Yards / Game
12
18
Passing Yards / Game
15
11
Rushing Yards / Game
17
13

EPA

EPA / Play
13
19
EPA / Pass
14
26
EPA / Rush
13
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
3
Interceptions / Game
28
7
Fumbles / Game
1
30
Turnover EPA / Game
8
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
21
4th Down Efficiency
9
31
RZ Efficiency
26
1
Rams Offense vs Raiders Defense
Rams logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
27
26
Yards / Game
32
27
Passing Yards / Game
26
5
Rushing Yards / Game
26
19

EPA

EPA / Play
27
25
EPA / Pass
27
30
EPA / Rush
19
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
25
Interceptions / Game
22
31
Fumbles / Game
11
25
Turnover EPA / Game
4
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
25
4th Down Efficiency
1
20
RZ Efficiency
14
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

OAK logo

Raiders

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/25
-2
L
L
O
10/02
9
W
W
O
10/10
-1
L
W
O
10/23
18
W
W
O
10/30
-24
L
L
U
11/06
-7
L
L
U
11/13
-5
L
L
O
11/20
6
W
W
U
11/27
6
W
W
O
12/04
7
W
W
U
LAR logo

Rams

2-8
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/25
8
W
W
U
10/03
-15
L
L
U
10/09
-12
L
L
U
10/16
14
W
W
U
10/30
-17
L
L
O
11/06
-3
L
P
U
11/13
-10
L
L
O
11/20
-7
L
L
O
11/27
-16
L
W
U
12/04
-4
L
W
O