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nfelo...
predictions...
raiders @ jets week 14, 2013

Game Summary

Spread

Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo

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OAKRaiders

4-8

27

TBD

MetLife Stadium

33°F

6 mph

37

NYJJets

5-7

TBD

MetLife Stadium

33°F

6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring

1

2

3

4

Total

Raiders

0

3

14

10

27

Jets

10

4

10

7

31

Spread

-3

Total

OVER

39

Game Statistics

General

Total Yards

383

352

Total Plays

65

58

Yards / Play

5.9

6.1

EPA / Play

+0.11

+0.24

Passing Yards

233

209

Comp/Att

20/36(56%)

16/25(64%)

Yards / Pass

6.5

8.4

EPA / Pass

+0.22

+0.20

Rushing Yards

150

143

Rush Attempts

26

32

Yards / Rush

5.8

4.5

EPA / Rush

+0.11

+0.09

Downs & Conversions

1st Downs

19

18

Passing 1st downs

13

9

Rushing 1st downs

5

8

Penalty 1st downs

1

1

3rd Down %

33%

54%

3rd Down Conversions

5

7

3rd Down Attempts

15

13

Red Zone %

50%

67%

Red Zone Conversions

1

2

Red Zone Attempts

2

3

Negative Plays

Turnovers

1

1

Interceptions

1

1

Fumbles

0

0

Turnover EPA

-4.02

-3.74

Sacks

3

1

Sack Yards

-32

-10

Sack EPA

-3.25

-1.26

Penalties

4

4

Penalty Yards

31

36

Penalty EPA

-3.99

-5.22

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner

NYJJetsFavored

Opening

-2.5

Current

-3.0

Model

-4.5

Win Probability

Market59.3%

Model66.0%

Spread Pick

Jets-3.0

Projected +EV

Expected Value

+9.5%

Cover Probability

53.4%

Projection Detail

nfelo Difference

+159

Home nfelo

1,405

Away nfelo

1,409

Home Field

+117.8

Base HFA

+62.5

Divisional Adj

--

Home Bye Adj

--

Away Bye Adj

--

Surface Adj

+21.8

Time Adj

+33.5

Net QB Adjustment

+45.3

Home QB Adjustment

-29.9

Away QB Adjustment

-75.2

Market Regression

+8.1

Final Difference

114.8

Model Spread

-4.5

Quarterbacks

M. McGloin

Proj. Value

-4.5

Team Elo Adj

-75.2

Value

Ptile

E. Smith

Proj. Value

-2.6

Team Elo Adj

-29.9

Value

Ptile

Team Matchup Ranks

Raiders Offense vs Jets Defense

Total

Points / Game

24

19

Yards / Game

23

11

Passing Yards / Game

30

27

Rushing Yards / Game

11

2

EPA

EPA / Play

24

16

EPA / Pass

24

25

EPA / Rush

16

3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game

14

6

Interceptions / Game

24

22

Fumbles / Game

27

32

Turnover EPA / Game

9

2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency

27

13

4th Down Efficiency

10

10

RZ Efficiency

5

4

Jets Offense vs Raiders Defense

Total

Points / Game

29

29

Yards / Game

25

21

Passing Yards / Game

32

30

Rushing Yards / Game

6

11

EPA

EPA / Play

29

26

EPA / Pass

30

32

EPA / Rush

18

15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game

20

11

Interceptions / Game

28

31

Fumbles / Game

5

11

Turnover EPA / Game

6

14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency

13

28

4th Down Efficiency

32

6

RZ Efficiency

26

22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

Raiders

3-7

SU

5-4-1

ATS

5-4-1

O/U

Margin

W/L

ATS

O/U

Jets

4-6

SU

4-6

ATS

7-3

O/U

Margin

W/L

ATS

O/U