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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. raiders @ chiefs week 16, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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OAK logo
OAKRaiders
6-8
20
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
38°F
11 mph
14
KCChiefs
9-5
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
38°F
11 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
3
2
3
0
8
Chiefs
0
7
0
7
14

Spread

OAK logo
+11

Total

UNDER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Raiders logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
207
308
Total Plays
54
74
Yards / Play
3.8
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.18
-0.24
Passing Yards
48
223
Comp/Att
9/21(43%)
28/45(62%)
Yards / Pass
2.3
5.0
EPA / Pass
-0.62
-0.26
Rushing Yards
159
85
Rush Attempts
31
25
Yards / Rush
5.1
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.00
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
Raiders logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
12
19
Passing 1st downs
3
11
Rushing 1st downs
8
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
25%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Raiders logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-14.57
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-14
-23
Sack EPA
-3.89
-6.22
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
20
44
Penalty EPA
-5.31
-4.52

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-11.0
Model
-11.0

Win Probability

Market81.7%
Model81.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+253
Home nfelo
1,659
Away nfelo
1,465
Home Field
+41.1
Base HFA
+45.3
Divisional Adj
-20.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+16.2
Net QB Adjustment
+17.7
Home QB Adjustment
-18.6
Away QB Adjustment
-36.3
Market Regression
+12.5
Final Difference
259.9
Model Spread
-11.0

Quarterbacks

A. O'Connell headshot

A. O'Connell

Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-36.3
Value
Ptile
10/01
-6.9
11
11/05
-0.3
47
11/12
-5.0
20
11/19
-5.7
16
11/26
3.2
71
12/10
-7.5
10
12/14
5.0
81
P. Mahomes headshot

P. Mahomes

Proj. Value
+1.9
Team Elo Adj
-18.6
Value
Ptile
10/08
4.1
76
10/12
3.4
72
10/22
13.4
99
10/29
-5.1
19
11/05
1.2
57
11/20
-0.0
48
11/26
6.0
86
12/03
-1.8
38
12/10
0.3
51
12/17
0.1
50

Team Matchup Ranks

Raiders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Raiders logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
23
2
Yards / Game
27
5
Passing Yards / Game
32
11
Rushing Yards / Game
30
17

EPA

EPA / Play
24
7
EPA / Pass
22
4
EPA / Rush
26
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
31
Interceptions / Game
28
27
Fumbles / Game
10
5
Turnover EPA / Game
13
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
5
4th Down Efficiency
6
19
RZ Efficiency
24
8
Chiefs Offense vs Raiders Defense
Chiefs logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
14
7
Yards / Game
8
14
Passing Yards / Game
11
27
Rushing Yards / Game
17
20

EPA

EPA / Play
10
5
EPA / Pass
13
9
EPA / Rush
16
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
20
Interceptions / Game
21
17
Fumbles / Game
21
21
Turnover EPA / Game
12
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
25
4th Down Efficiency
12
23
RZ Efficiency
20
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

OAK logo

Raiders

5-5
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/09
4
W
W
U
10/15
4
W
W
U
10/22
-18
L
L
O
10/30
-12
L
L
U
11/05
24
W
W
U
11/12
4
W
W
U
11/19
-7
L
W
U
11/26
-14
L
L
O
12/10
-3
L
P
U
12/14
42
W
W
O
KC logo

Chiefs

6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/08
7
W
W
U
10/12
11
W
W
U
10/22
14
W
W
U
10/29
-15
L
L
U
11/05
7
W
W
U
11/20
-4
L
L
U
11/26
14
W
W
O
12/03
-8
L
L
O
12/10
-3
L
L
U
12/17
10
W
P
O