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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. raiders @ chiefs week 16, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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OAK logo
OAKRaiders
7-7
16
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
38°F
7 mph
13
KCChiefs
6-8
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
38°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Raiders
3
0
7
3
3
16
Chiefs
3
0
3
7
0
13

Spread

OAK logo
+3

Total

UNDER
43

Game Statistics

General
Raiders logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
308
435
Total Plays
51
66
Yards / Play
6.0
6.6
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.09
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
16/26(62%)
21/36(58%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.21
+0.01
Rushing Yards
71
135
Rush Attempts
25
30
Yards / Rush
2.8
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.34
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
Raiders logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
13
26
Passing 1st downs
10
14
Rushing 1st downs
1
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
5
3rd Down %
27%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
0%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Raiders logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.10
-10.53
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
15
11
Penalty Yards
92
88
Penalty EPA
-8.94
-14.26

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+66
Home nfelo
1,464
Away nfelo
1,483
Home Field
+56.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+28.6
Home QB Adjustment
+46.6
Away QB Adjustment
+17.9
Market Regression
+39.6
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+17.9
Value
Ptile
12/19
-0.1
49
12/26
10.8
98
01/02
3.8
75
11/06
-2.4
34
11/10
2.8
71
11/20
-1.2
43
11/27
-4.0
24
12/04
-1.1
44
12/11
-5.6
15
12/18
7.0
90
K. Orton headshot

K. Orton

Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+46.6
Value
Ptile
11/22
-3.1
29
11/28
5.2
84
12/05
-10.1
4
12/12
-10.1
4
09/12
-3.1
31
09/18
0.8
58
09/25
-2.2
35
10/02
1.8
64
10/09
-7.0
10
12/18
4.1
77

Team Matchup Ranks

Raiders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Raiders logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
16
13
Yards / Game
9
11
Passing Yards / Game
26
2
Rushing Yards / Game
6
26

EPA

EPA / Play
10
21
EPA / Pass
13
22
EPA / Rush
8
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
20
Interceptions / Game
27
5
Fumbles / Game
6
18
Turnover EPA / Game
11
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
5
4th Down Efficiency
8
18
RZ Efficiency
23
20
Chiefs Offense vs Raiders Defense
Chiefs logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
31
29
Yards / Game
27
29
Passing Yards / Game
28
16
Rushing Yards / Game
15
27

EPA

EPA / Play
29
30
EPA / Pass
21
25
EPA / Rush
31
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
30
Interceptions / Game
23
10
Fumbles / Game
6
26
Turnover EPA / Game
14
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
25
4th Down Efficiency
15
5
RZ Efficiency
32
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

OAK logo

Raiders

5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/09
5
W
W
U
10/16
7
W
W
U
10/23
-28
L
L
U
11/06
-14
L
L
O
11/10
7
W
W
U
11/20
6
W
W
O
11/27
5
W
W
O
12/04
-20
L
L
O
12/11
-30
L
L
O
12/18
-1
L
P
O
KC logo

Chiefs

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/09
4
W
W
O
10/23
28
W
W
U
10/31
3
W
W
U
11/06
-28
L
L
U
11/13
-7
L
L
U
11/21
-31
L
L
U
11/27
-4
L
W
U
12/04
7
W
W
U
12/11
-27
L
L
O
12/18
5
W
W
U