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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. raiders @ chargers week 9, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

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  • QB Rankings
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  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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OAK logo
OAKRaiders
4-3
31
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0
26
LACChargers
2-5
LAC logo
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
7
7
14
3
31
Chargers
0
17
3
6
26

Spread

OAK logo
-1

Total

OVER
52.5

Game Statistics

General
Raiders logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
320
440
Total Plays
50
76
Yards / Play
6.4
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.27
+0.05
Passing Yards
160
312
Comp/Att
13/23(57%)
28/42(67%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.06
+0.24
Rushing Yards
160
128
Rush Attempts
26
32
Yards / Rush
6.2
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.30
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
Raiders logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
16
26
Passing 1st downs
6
18
Rushing 1st downs
10
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
50%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
15
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Raiders logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
+2.45
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-5
-14
Sack EPA
-2.57
-3.39
Penalties
2
5
Penalty Yards
--
45
Penalty EPA
--
-3.10

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
OAK logo
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-0.5

Win Probability

Market52.3%
Model51.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+16
Home nfelo
1,485
Away nfelo
1,484
Home Field
+5.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+9.9
Home QB Adjustment
+26.3
Away QB Adjustment
+16.5
Market Regression
-31.6
Final Difference
-9.4
Model Spread
+0.5

Quarterbacks

D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+16.5
Value
Ptile
12/15
-1.4
43
12/22
5.6
85
12/29
4.2
80
09/13
3.4
69
09/21
5.0
78
09/27
5.3
79
10/04
7.1
89
10/11
6.0
83
10/25
2.1
59
11/01
-2.5
27
J. Herbert headshot

J. Herbert

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+26.3
Value
Ptile
09/20
3.9
72
09/27
2.8
65
10/04
4.8
78
10/12
3.0
67
10/25
11.5
98
11/01
2.2
61

Team Matchup Ranks

Raiders Offense vs Chargers Defense
Raiders logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
10
23
Yards / Game
8
10
Passing Yards / Game
18
10
Rushing Yards / Game
14
17

EPA

EPA / Play
11
13
EPA / Pass
14
19
EPA / Rush
12
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
18
Interceptions / Game
7
16
Fumbles / Game
32
24
Turnover EPA / Game
3
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
22
4th Down Efficiency
3
26
RZ Efficiency
23
8
Chargers Offense vs Raiders Defense
Chargers logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
18
30
Yards / Game
10
26
Passing Yards / Game
2
5
Rushing Yards / Game
18
23

EPA

EPA / Play
23
29
EPA / Pass
10
28
EPA / Rush
31
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
24
Interceptions / Game
7
23
Fumbles / Game
8
31
Turnover EPA / Game
30
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
30
4th Down Efficiency
25
31
RZ Efficiency
21
19

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

OAK logo

Raiders

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/15
-4
L
L
U
12/22
7
W
W
U
12/29
-1
L
W
U
09/13
4
W
W
O
09/21
10
W
W
O
09/27
-16
L
L
O
10/04
-7
L
L
P
10/11
8
W
W
O
10/25
-25
L
L
O
11/01
10
W
W
U
LAC logo

Chargers

2-8
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/15
-29
L
L
O
12/22
-7
L
L
U
12/29
-10
L
P
O
09/13
3
W
W
U
09/20
-3
L
W
U
09/27
-5
L
L
U
10/04
-7
L
W
O
10/12
-3
L
W
O
10/25
10
W
W
O
11/01
-1
L
L
O