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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. raiders @ broncos week 1, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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OAK logo
OAKRaiders
-
17
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
70°F
0
16
DENBroncos
-
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
7
3
0
7
17
Broncos
6
7
0
3
16

Spread

OAK logo
+3

Total

UNDER
43

Game Statistics

General
Raiders logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
261
260
Total Plays
55
58
Yards / Play
4.7
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.16
+0.08
Passing Yards
--
166
Comp/Att
20/26(77%)
27/34(79%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.9
EPA / Pass
+0.50
+0.07
Rushing Yards
61
94
Rush Attempts
29
22
Yards / Rush
2.1
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.24
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
Raiders logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
22
22
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
6
6
3rd Down %
45%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Raiders logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.91
--
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-11
Sack EPA
--
-2.67
Penalties
10
10
Penalty Yards
97
83
Penalty EPA
-12.77
-14.69

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+39
Home nfelo
1,498
Away nfelo
1,499
Home Field
+23.3
Base HFA
+42.4
Divisional Adj
-19.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+16.7
Home QB Adjustment
+14.3
Away QB Adjustment
-2.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

J. Garoppolo headshot

J. Garoppolo

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-2.4
Value
Ptile
09/25
-5.0
18
10/03
2.1
69
10/09
0.8
58
10/16
1.7
65
10/23
-3.2
27
10/30
3.9
80
11/13
1.7
65
11/21
5.8
88
11/27
2.3
71
12/04
-7.0
9
R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+14.3
Value
Ptile
10/17
-4.1
23
10/30
-3.5
25
11/13
-8.5
4
11/20
-2.3
34
11/27
-5.3
16
12/04
-0.5
48
12/11
-0.2
51
12/25
-10.1
2
01/01
1.1
60
01/08
2.3
71

Team Matchup Ranks

Raiders Offense vs Broncos Defense
Raiders logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
23
27
Yards / Game
27
29
Passing Yards / Game
32
14
Rushing Yards / Game
30
30

EPA

EPA / Play
24
24
EPA / Pass
22
26
EPA / Rush
26
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
6
Interceptions / Game
28
19
Fumbles / Game
10
1
Turnover EPA / Game
13
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
2
4th Down Efficiency
6
10
RZ Efficiency
24
21
Broncos Offense vs Raiders Defense
Broncos logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
20
7
Yards / Game
26
14
Passing Yards / Game
13
27
Rushing Yards / Game
19
20

EPA

EPA / Play
20
5
EPA / Pass
20
9
EPA / Rush
19
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
20
Interceptions / Game
4
17
Fumbles / Game
27
21
Turnover EPA / Game
15
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
25
4th Down Efficiency
4
23
RZ Efficiency
19
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

OAK logo

Raiders

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/06
-7
L
L
U
11/13
-5
L
L
O
11/20
6
W
W
U
11/27
6
W
W
O
12/04
7
W
W
U
12/08
-1
L
L
U
12/18
6
W
W
O
12/24
-3
L
L
U
01/01
-3
L
W
O
01/07
-18
L
L
U
DEN logo

Broncos

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/30
4
W
W
U
11/13
-7
L
L
U
11/20
-6
L
L
U
11/27
-13
L
L
U
12/04
-1
L
W
U
12/11
-6
L
W
O
12/18
9
W
W
O
12/25
-37
L
L
O
01/01
-3
L
W
O
01/08
3
W
L
O