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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. patriots @ texans week 5, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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NE logo
NEPatriots
1-3
25
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
22
HOUTexans
1-3
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
9
6
10
25
Texans
6
9
7
0
22

Spread

HOU logo
+8

Total

OVER
39.5

Game Statistics

General
Patriots logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
352
360
Total Plays
61
56
Yards / Play
5.8
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.00
Passing Yards
226
293
Comp/Att
23/30(77%)
21/29(72%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
10.1
EPA / Pass
+0.29
+0.61
Rushing Yards
126
67
Rush Attempts
30
24
Yards / Rush
4.2
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.27
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
Patriots logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
21
14
Passing 1st downs
12
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
55%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
40%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Patriots logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-10.18
-0.06
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-5
-19
Sack EPA
-1.06
-3.77
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
27
70
Penalty EPA
-4.22
-8.38

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-8.0
Model
-8.0

Win Probability

Market76.2%
Model76.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-233
Home nfelo
1,395
Away nfelo
1,528
Home Field
+34.5
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.5
Net QB Adjustment
-134.2
Home QB Adjustment
-143.3
Away QB Adjustment
-9.1
Market Regression
+20.8
Final Difference
-202.2
Model Spread
+8.0

Quarterbacks

M. Jones headshot

M. Jones

Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
-9.1
Value
Ptile
09/12
3.8
79
09/19
-4.4
22
09/26
-3.6
26
10/03
-0.3
50
D. Mills headshot

D. Mills

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-143.3
Value
Ptile
09/23
-3.9
25
10/03
-15.2
0

Team Matchup Ranks

Patriots Offense vs Texans Defense
Patriots logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
7
27
Yards / Game
15
31
Passing Yards / Game
12
26
Rushing Yards / Game
8
31

EPA

EPA / Play
5
26
EPA / Pass
10
26
EPA / Rush
9
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
9
Interceptions / Game
17
8
Fumbles / Game
17
18
Turnover EPA / Game
6
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
26
4th Down Efficiency
1
20
RZ Efficiency
7
20
Texans Offense vs Patriots Defense
Texans logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
30
3
Yards / Game
32
7
Passing Yards / Game
22
2
Rushing Yards / Game
32
24

EPA

EPA / Play
30
5
EPA / Pass
28
5
EPA / Rush
30
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
30
Interceptions / Game
21
2
Fumbles / Game
13
16
Turnover EPA / Game
22
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
9
4th Down Efficiency
27
16
RZ Efficiency
27
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NE logo

Patriots

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
1-8-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/29
3
W
W
U
12/06
45
W
W
U
12/10
-21
L
L
U
12/20
-10
L
L
U
12/28
-29
L
L
P
01/03
14
W
W
O
09/12
-1
L
L
U
09/19
19
W
W
U
09/26
-15
L
L
U
10/03
-2
L
W
U
HOU logo

Texans

2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/26
16
W
W
O
12/06
-6
L
L
U
12/13
-29
L
L
U
12/20
-7
L
W
U
12/27
-6
L
L
O
01/03
-3
L
W
O
09/12
16
W
W
O
09/19
-10
L
W
O
09/23
-15
L
L
U
10/03
-40
L
L
U