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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. patriots @ jets week 16, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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NE logo
NEPatriots
11-3
17
TBD
MetLife Stadium
34°F
9 mph
16
NYJJets
3-11
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
34°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
7
3
7
17
Jets
0
10
3
3
16

Spread

NYJ logo
+10

Total

UNDER
47

Game Statistics

General
Patriots logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
231
307
Total Plays
63
61
Yards / Play
3.7
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.12
-0.16
Passing Yards
146
191
Comp/Att
23/35(66%)
17/27(63%)
Yards / Pass
4.2
7.1
EPA / Pass
-0.13
+0.08
Rushing Yards
85
116
Rush Attempts
24
32
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
Patriots logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
19
16
Passing 1st downs
13
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
46%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Patriots logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.80
-3.70
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-36
-19
Sack EPA
-6.00
-4.24
Penalties
5
2
Penalty Yards
38
14
Penalty EPA
-3.08
-1.90

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0

Win Probability

Market80.1%
Model80.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-278
Home nfelo
1,407
Away nfelo
1,686
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-33.5
Home QB Adjustment
-9.1
Away QB Adjustment
+24.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-241.9
Model Spread
+10.0

Quarterbacks

T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+24.4
Value
Ptile
10/05
6.3
87
10/12
10.6
98
10/16
2.9
71
10/26
14.8
99
11/02
6.6
88
11/16
-0.3
48
11/23
8.0
91
11/30
2.8
70
12/07
2.6
69
12/14
4.2
78
E. Smith headshot

E. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-9.1
Value
Ptile
09/14
-1.4
40
09/22
-1.3
41
09/28
-3.9
26
10/05
-9.1
6
10/12
-4.9
20
10/16
0.4
52
10/26
-12.0
1
12/01
-7.2
10
12/07
-0.9
43
12/14
-2.9
30

Team Matchup Ranks

Patriots Offense vs Jets Defense
Patriots logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
1
24
Yards / Game
10
7
Passing Yards / Game
10
30
Rushing Yards / Game
19
5

EPA

EPA / Play
1
26
EPA / Pass
4
24
EPA / Rush
5
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
8
Interceptions / Game
6
30
Fumbles / Game
3
21
Turnover EPA / Game
30
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
30
4th Down Efficiency
3
1
RZ Efficiency
5
27
Jets Offense vs Patriots Defense
Jets logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
28
8
Yards / Game
22
12
Passing Yards / Game
23
21
Rushing Yards / Game
3
13

EPA

EPA / Play
24
9
EPA / Pass
29
11
EPA / Rush
10
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
28
Interceptions / Game
17
10
Fumbles / Game
10
23
Turnover EPA / Game
15
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
13
4th Down Efficiency
7
12
RZ Efficiency
32
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NE logo

Patriots

9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/05
26
W
W
O
10/12
15
W
W
O
10/16
2
W
L
O
10/26
28
W
W
O
11/02
22
W
W
O
11/16
22
W
W
O
11/23
25
W
W
U
11/30
-5
L
L
U
12/07
9
W
W
U
12/14
28
W
W
O
NYJ logo

Jets

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/05
-31
L
L
U
10/12
-14
L
L
O
10/16
-2
L
W
O
10/26
-20
L
L
O
11/02
-14
L
L
U
11/09
7
W
W
U
11/24
-35
L
L
U
12/01
-3
L
W
U
12/07
-6
L
L
O
12/14
5
W
W
U