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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. patriots @ jets week 12, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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NE logo
NEPatriots
7-3
27
TBD
MetLife Stadium
54°F
8 mph
13
NYJJets
3-7
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
54°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
3
10
7
27
Jets
7
3
3
0
13

Spread

NE logo
-12.5

Total

UNDER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Patriots logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
498
338
Total Plays
67
62
Yards / Play
7.4
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.28
-0.01
Passing Yards
--
264
Comp/Att
20/31(65%)
26/45(58%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.49
-0.08
Rushing Yards
215
74
Rush Attempts
36
15
Yards / Rush
6.0
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.26
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
Patriots logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
25
18
Passing 1st downs
12
12
Rushing 1st downs
11
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
42%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Patriots logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-2.38
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-12
Sack EPA
--
-2.70
Penalties
11
8
Penalty Yards
105
47
Penalty EPA
-10.93
-5.45

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-12.5
Model
-10.0

Win Probability

Market84.5%
Model80.2%
Spread Pick
NYJ logo
Jets+12.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+16.2%
Cover Probability
60.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-202
Home nfelo
1,383
Away nfelo
1,631
Home Field
+3.4
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
+16.6
Away Bye Adj
-45.1
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+42.8
Home QB Adjustment
+37.2
Away QB Adjustment
-5.6
Market Regression
-40.9
Final Difference
-243.0
Model Spread
+10.0

Quarterbacks

T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-5.6
Value
Ptile
09/09
2.4
66
09/16
3.4
72
09/23
-5.8
14
09/30
3.0
70
10/04
8.8
94
10/14
5.1
81
10/21
5.1
81
10/29
2.1
63
11/04
0.6
50
11/11
-4.7
20
J. McCown headshot

J. McCown

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+37.2
Value
Ptile
10/08
-2.4
36
10/15
-0.0
52
10/22
0.6
56
10/29
3.2
75
11/02
1.6
64
11/12
-7.2
12
11/26
4.5
83
12/03
10.9
99
12/10
-11.2
2
11/11
-10.6
3

Team Matchup Ranks

Patriots Offense vs Jets Defense
Patriots logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
4
29
Yards / Game
4
25
Passing Yards / Game
25
11
Rushing Yards / Game
5
26

EPA

EPA / Play
4
18
EPA / Pass
7
20
EPA / Rush
6
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
19
Interceptions / Game
12
16
Fumbles / Game
8
18
Turnover EPA / Game
27
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
2
4th Down Efficiency
19
25
RZ Efficiency
10
9
Jets Offense vs Patriots Defense
Jets logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
23
6
Yards / Game
29
15
Passing Yards / Game
23
9
Rushing Yards / Game
26
7

EPA

EPA / Play
29
7
EPA / Pass
27
5
EPA / Rush
31
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
32
Interceptions / Game
29
5
Fumbles / Game
22
14
Turnover EPA / Game
4
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
15
4th Down Efficiency
19
4
RZ Efficiency
30
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NE logo

Patriots

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/09
7
W
W
U
09/16
-11
L
L
O
09/23
-16
L
L
U
09/30
31
W
W
U
10/04
14
W
W
O
10/14
3
W
L
O
10/21
7
W
W
O
10/29
19
W
W
U
11/04
14
W
W
U
11/11
-24
L
L
U
NYJ logo

Jets

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/10
31
W
W
O
09/16
-8
L
L
U
09/20
-4
L
L
U
09/30
-19
L
L
O
10/07
18
W
W
O
10/14
8
W
W
O
10/21
-20
L
L
O
10/28
-14
L
L
U
11/04
-7
L
L
U
11/11
-31
L
L
O