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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. patriots @ chargers week 8, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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NE logo
NEPatriots
3-4
27
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0
24
LACChargers
4-2
LAC logo
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
6
3
5
21
Chargers
7
7
3
7
24

Spread

NE logo
+3.5

Total

OVER
50.5

Game Statistics

General
Patriots logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
354
369
Total Plays
76
58
Yards / Play
4.7
6.4
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.16
Passing Yards
212
206
Comp/Att
18/36(50%)
18/35(51%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
5.9
EPA / Pass
-0.12
-0.22
Rushing Yards
142
163
Rush Attempts
39
20
Yards / Rush
3.6
8.2
EPA / Rush
+0.01
+0.30
Downs & Conversions
Patriots logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
21
17
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
9
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
47%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
9
4
3rd Down Attempts
19
12
Red Zone %
25%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Patriots logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.20
-11.19
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-7
-17
Sack EPA
-2.39
-3.33
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
--
40
Penalty EPA
--
-6.52

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+82
Home nfelo
1,532
Away nfelo
1,521
Home Field
+59.7
Base HFA
+40.7
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+11.7
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.3
Net QB Adjustment
+11.8
Home QB Adjustment
+12.7
Away QB Adjustment
+0.9
Market Regression
-32.3
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

M. Jones headshot

M. Jones

Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
+0.9
Value
Ptile
09/12
3.8
79
09/19
-4.4
22
09/26
-3.6
26
10/03
-0.3
50
10/10
-1.1
45
10/17
-1.6
41
10/24
4.3
81
J. Herbert headshot

J. Herbert

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+12.7
Value
Ptile
12/13
2.3
61
12/17
6.1
84
12/27
0.7
50
01/03
6.1
84
09/12
0.8
59
09/19
0.8
59
09/26
7.2
92
10/04
1.4
63
10/10
11.6
98
10/17
-3.9
24

Team Matchup Ranks

Patriots Offense vs Chargers Defense
Patriots logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
7
29
Yards / Game
15
23
Passing Yards / Game
12
23
Rushing Yards / Game
8
30

EPA

EPA / Play
5
25
EPA / Pass
10
17
EPA / Rush
9
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
27
Interceptions / Game
17
22
Fumbles / Game
17
7
Turnover EPA / Game
6
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
32
4th Down Efficiency
1
1
RZ Efficiency
7
27
Chargers Offense vs Patriots Defense
Chargers logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
5
3
Yards / Game
4
7
Passing Yards / Game
5
2
Rushing Yards / Game
21
24

EPA

EPA / Play
7
5
EPA / Pass
7
5
EPA / Rush
16
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
30
Interceptions / Game
21
2
Fumbles / Game
7
16
Turnover EPA / Game
15
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
9
4th Down Efficiency
4
16
RZ Efficiency
3
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NE logo

Patriots

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/20
-10
L
L
U
12/28
-29
L
L
P
01/03
14
W
W
O
09/12
-1
L
L
U
09/19
19
W
W
U
09/26
-15
L
L
U
10/03
-2
L
W
U
10/10
3
W
L
O
10/17
-6
L
L
O
10/24
41
W
W
O
LAC logo

Chargers

8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/13
3
W
W
U
12/17
3
W
W
O
12/27
3
W
W
U
01/03
17
W
W
O
09/12
4
W
W
U
09/19
-3
L
L
U
09/26
6
W
W
U
10/04
14
W
W
U
10/10
5
W
W
O
10/17
-28
L
L
U