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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. patriots @ buccaneers week 5, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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NE logo
NEPatriots
2-2
19
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
76°F
9 mph
14
TBBuccaneers
2-1
TB logo
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
76°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
3
10
3
3
19
Buccaneers
0
7
0
7
14

Spread

NE logo
-4

Total

UNDER
54.5

Game Statistics

General
Patriots logo
Buccaneers logo
Total Yards
402
409
Total Plays
66
68
Yards / Play
6.1
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.09
Passing Yards
289
319
Comp/Att
30/40(75%)
26/46(57%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.07
+0.01
Rushing Yards
113
90
Rush Attempts
23
20
Yards / Rush
4.9
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
Patriots logo
Buccaneers logo
1st Downs
23
26
Passing 1st downs
15
17
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
33%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Patriots logo
Buccaneers logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.79
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-14
-15
Sack EPA
-8.94
-2.36
Penalties
12
9
Penalty Yards
108
70
Penalty EPA
-13.62
-10.02

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-101
Home nfelo
1,481
Away nfelo
1,643
Home Field
+78.3
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-17.8
Home QB Adjustment
+5.2
Away QB Adjustment
+22.9
Market Regression
+10.8
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0

Quarterbacks

T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+22.9
Value
Ptile
12/18
-3.3
24
12/24
2.7
70
01/01
8.0
93
01/14
-3.3
25
01/22
9.6
96
02/05
5.5
84
09/07
-4.8
20
09/17
10.5
98
09/24
9.3
96
10/01
4.5
82
J. Winston headshot

J. Winston

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+5.2
Value
Ptile
11/20
4.5
81
11/27
3.7
76
12/04
0.0
48
12/11
-3.6
22
12/18
-9.4
3
12/24
-1.0
41
01/01
-3.9
20
09/17
-1.8
40
09/24
-0.1
50
10/01
6.3
89

Team Matchup Ranks

Patriots Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Patriots logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
2
22
Yards / Game
1
32
Passing Yards / Game
2
3
Rushing Yards / Game
15
23

EPA

EPA / Play
1
28
EPA / Pass
1
29
EPA / Rush
8
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
13
Interceptions / Game
2
15
Fumbles / Game
6
9
Turnover EPA / Game
31
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
32
4th Down Efficiency
4
1
RZ Efficiency
3
18
Buccaneers Offense vs Patriots Defense
Buccaneers logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
18
7
Yards / Game
7
30
Passing Yards / Game
1
28
Rushing Yards / Game
27
20

EPA

EPA / Play
13
26
EPA / Pass
11
24
EPA / Rush
25
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
21
Interceptions / Game
20
22
Fumbles / Game
32
30
Turnover EPA / Game
8
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
22
4th Down Efficiency
13
17
RZ Efficiency
23
7

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NE logo

Patriots

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/18
13
W
W
U
12/24
38
W
W
U
01/01
21
W
W
O
01/14
18
W
W
O
01/22
19
W
W
O
02/05
6
W
W
O
09/07
-15
L
L
O
09/17
16
W
W
O
09/24
3
W
L
O
10/01
-3
L
L
O
TB logo

Buccaneers

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/20
2
W
W
U
11/27
9
W
W
U
12/04
7
W
W
P
12/11
5
W
W
U
12/18
-6
L
W
U
12/24
-7
L
L
O
01/01
1
W
L
U
09/17
22
W
W
U
09/24
-17
L
L
O
10/01
2
W
L
O