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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. panthers @ saints week 6, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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CAR logo
CARPanthers
1-4
38
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0
41
NOSaints
1-3
NO logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
0
10
7
21
38
Saints
14
10
7
10
41

Spread

NO logo
+2.5

Total

OVER
53.5

Game Statistics

General
Panthers logo
Saints logo
Total Yards
408
523
Total Plays
77
71
Yards / Play
5.3
7.4
EPA / Play
+0.16
+0.16
Passing Yards
305
460
Comp/Att
27/48(56%)
34/49(69%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
9.4
EPA / Pass
+0.10
+0.40
Rushing Yards
103
63
Rush Attempts
27
21
Yards / Rush
3.8
3.0
EPA / Rush
+0.00
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
Panthers logo
Saints logo
1st Downs
32
23
Passing 1st downs
20
19
Rushing 1st downs
9
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
27%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
11
16
Red Zone %
83%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
5
3
Red Zone Attempts
6
4
Negative Plays
Panthers logo
Saints logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.50
-4.68
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-19
-5
Sack EPA
-4.98
-0.76
Penalties
5
10
Penalty Yards
51
126
Penalty EPA
-6.78
-12.81

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CAR logo
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-51
Home nfelo
1,462
Away nfelo
1,578
Home Field
+58.4
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
-26.2
Home Bye Adj
+16.6
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
-10.4
Net QB Adjustment
+6.5
Home QB Adjustment
+7.0
Away QB Adjustment
+0.5
Market Regression
+22.1
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+0.5
Value
Ptile
12/20
11.4
99
12/27
-0.8
46
01/03
6.3
88
01/17
-0.5
48
01/24
10.6
97
02/07
-7.0
7
09/08
0.3
52
09/18
8.6
94
09/25
-9.7
2
10/02
-1.5
37
D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+7.0
Value
Ptile
11/29
-4.1
21
12/06
3.5
75
12/13
5.2
83
12/21
8.0
94
12/27
8.0
94
01/03
5.9
87
09/11
11.6
98
09/18
0.6
54
09/26
5.5
84
10/02
-4.2
18

Team Matchup Ranks

Panthers Offense vs Saints Defense
Panthers logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
15
31
Yards / Game
19
26
Passing Yards / Game
18
28
Rushing Yards / Game
10
14

EPA

EPA / Play
22
28
EPA / Pass
25
27
EPA / Rush
14
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
28
Interceptions / Game
28
28
Fumbles / Game
16
2
Turnover EPA / Game
5
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
27
4th Down Efficiency
7
10
RZ Efficiency
11
18
Saints Offense vs Panthers Defense
Saints logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
2
26
Yards / Game
1
21
Passing Yards / Game
1
32
Rushing Yards / Game
15
7

EPA

EPA / Play
7
11
EPA / Pass
6
17
EPA / Rush
7
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
14
Interceptions / Game
18
4
Fumbles / Game
13
8
Turnover EPA / Game
6
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
11
4th Down Efficiency
2
27
RZ Efficiency
2
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CAR logo

Panthers

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/27
-7
L
L
U
01/03
28
W
W
O
01/17
7
W
W
O
01/24
34
W
W
O
02/07
-14
L
L
U
09/08
-1
L
L
O
09/18
19
W
W
O
09/25
-12
L
L
U
10/02
-15
L
L
O
10/10
-3
L
L
U
NO logo

Saints

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/29
-18
L
L
U
12/06
-3
L
W
O
12/13
7
W
W
U
12/21
-8
L
L
O
12/27
11
W
W
O
01/03
3
W
W
U
09/11
-1
L
L
O
09/18
-3
L
W
U
09/26
-13
L
L
O
10/02
1
W
W
O