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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. panthers @ eagles week 12, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CAR logo
CARPanthers
2-8
30
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
36°F
2 mph
22
PHIEagles
3-7
PHI logo
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
36°F
2 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
14
0
7
9
30
Eagles
3
12
7
0
22

Spread

CAR logo
-3

Total

OVER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Panthers logo
Eagles logo
Total Yards
398
311
Total Plays
65
49
Yards / Play
6.1
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.17
-0.01
Passing Yards
289
107
Comp/Att
18/28(64%)
16/22(73%)
Yards / Pass
10.3
4.9
EPA / Pass
+0.54
-0.10
Rushing Yards
109
204
Rush Attempts
35
26
Yards / Rush
3.1
7.8
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
Panthers logo
Eagles logo
1st Downs
24
18
Passing 1st downs
12
4
Rushing 1st downs
10
12
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
50%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
12
8
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Panthers logo
Eagles logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
--
-12.31
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-17
-12
Sack EPA
-2.70
-1.93
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
101
30
Penalty EPA
-7.94
-2.48

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CAR logo
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model53.9%
Spread Pick
PHI logo
Eagles+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+8.4%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+10
Home nfelo
1,475
Away nfelo
1,440
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-86.6
Home QB Adjustment
-94.9
Away QB Adjustment
-8.3
Market Regression
-11.0
Final Difference
-27.0
Model Spread
+1.5

Quarterbacks

C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-8.3
Value
Ptile
09/09
-2.3
34
09/16
7.6
91
09/20
-6.3
12
09/30
8.4
93
10/07
-5.1
18
10/21
1.7
61
10/28
-1.0
42
11/04
3.8
73
11/11
-7.3
9
11/18
0.2
51
N. Foles headshot

N. Foles

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-94.9
Value
Ptile
11/18
-12.5
1

Team Matchup Ranks

Panthers Offense vs Eagles Defense
Panthers logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
18
29
Yards / Game
13
14
Passing Yards / Game
11
3
Rushing Yards / Game
9
21

EPA

EPA / Play
12
29
EPA / Pass
11
31
EPA / Rush
6
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
5
Interceptions / Game
7
30
Fumbles / Game
7
26
Turnover EPA / Game
25
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
27
4th Down Efficiency
27
1
RZ Efficiency
10
19
Eagles Offense vs Panthers Defense
Eagles logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
29
18
Yards / Game
17
10
Passing Yards / Game
6
21
Rushing Yards / Game
13
13

EPA

EPA / Play
27
22
EPA / Pass
24
16
EPA / Rush
27
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
15
Interceptions / Game
14
23
Fumbles / Game
32
3
Turnover EPA / Game
1
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
7
4th Down Efficiency
10
20
RZ Efficiency
29
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CAR logo

Panthers

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/09
-6
L
L
U
09/16
8
W
W
O
09/20
-29
L
L
U
09/30
-2
L
W
O
10/07
-4
L
L
U
10/21
-5
L
L
U
10/28
-1
L
W
O
11/04
8
W
W
U
11/11
-22
L
L
O
11/18
-6
L
L
O
PHI logo

Eagles

3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/09
1
W
L
U
09/16
1
W
L
O
09/23
-21
L
L
U
09/30
2
W
W
U
10/07
-2
L
W
U
10/14
-3
L
L
O
10/28
-13
L
L
O
11/05
-15
L
L
U
11/11
-15
L
L
O
11/18
-25
L
L
U