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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ rams week 5, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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GB logo
GBPackers
2-2
24
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0
19
LARRams
1-3
LAR logo
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
3
14
0
24
Rams
0
7
0
6
13

Spread

GB logo
-3

Total

UNDER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
328
370
Total Plays
58
77
Yards / Play
5.7
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.01
-0.09
Passing Yards
202
236
Comp/Att
15/26(58%)
29/45(64%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
5.2
EPA / Pass
-0.03
-0.20
Rushing Yards
126
134
Rush Attempts
30
29
Yards / Rush
4.2
4.6
EPA / Rush
+0.06
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
19
24
Passing 1st downs
8
11
Rushing 1st downs
9
12
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
13%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
1
8
3rd Down Attempts
8
16
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.92
-9.88
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-22
-24
Sack EPA
-4.53
-5.54
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
39
30
Penalty EPA
-7.01
-3.56

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-0.5

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model51.6%
Spread Pick
LAR logo
Rams+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+9.1%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+37
Home nfelo
1,516
Away nfelo
1,537
Home Field
+70.6
Base HFA
+46.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.1
Time Adj
+8.3
Net QB Adjustment
-13.1
Home QB Adjustment
-9.7
Away QB Adjustment
+3.3
Market Regression
+12.8
Final Difference
-11.2
Model Spread
+0.5

Quarterbacks

J. Love headshot

J. Love

Proj. Value
+1.2
Team Elo Adj
+3.3
Value
Ptile
12/03
6.2
88
12/11
-1.9
37
12/17
3.9
75
12/24
4.5
78
12/31
8.5
95
01/07
7.3
92
01/14
8.2
94
01/20
-1.2
41
09/06
-1.8
36
09/29
4.2
76
J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
-9.7
Value
Ptile
12/03
7.1
91
12/10
4.4
78
12/17
1.8
62
12/21
6.4
88
12/31
-3.0
29
01/14
4.8
80
09/08
0.9
54
09/15
-5.6
13
09/22
-1.3
39
09/29
-3.5
25

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Rams Defense
Packers logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
8
15
Yards / Game
7
25
Passing Yards / Game
29
15
Rushing Yards / Game
6
28

EPA

EPA / Play
9
20
EPA / Pass
8
13
EPA / Rush
8
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
23
Interceptions / Game
20
15
Fumbles / Game
19
25
Turnover EPA / Game
16
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
18
4th Down Efficiency
23
6
RZ Efficiency
10
4
Rams Offense vs Packers Defense
Rams logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
19
5
Yards / Game
14
4
Passing Yards / Game
31
22
Rushing Yards / Game
23
7

EPA

EPA / Play
14
5
EPA / Pass
12
5
EPA / Rush
27
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
31
Interceptions / Game
7
3
Fumbles / Game
11
4
Turnover EPA / Game
28
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
7
4th Down Efficiency
7
22
RZ Efficiency
25
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/17
-14
L
L
O
12/24
3
W
L
O
12/31
23
W
W
O
01/07
8
W
W
U
01/14
16
W
W
O
01/20
-3
L
W
U
09/06
-5
L
L
O
09/15
6
W
W
U
09/22
16
W
W
O
09/29
-2
L
L
O
LAR logo

Rams

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/10
-6
L
W
O
12/17
8
W
W
U
12/21
8
W
W
O
12/31
1
W
L
O
01/07
1
W
W
O
01/14
-1
L
W
U
09/08
-6
L
L
U
09/15
-31
L
L
O
09/22
3
W
W
O
09/29
-6
L
L
O