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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ eagles week 19, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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GB logo
GBPackers
11-6
10
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
40°F
6 mph
22
PHIEagles
14-3
PHI logo
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
40°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
0
3
7
10
Eagles
10
0
6
6
22

Spread

PHI logo
-5.5

Total

UNDER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Eagles logo
Total Yards
302
290
Total Plays
60
57
Yards / Play
5.0
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.25
-0.02
Passing Yards
195
121
Comp/Att
20/33(61%)
13/21(62%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
5.8
EPA / Pass
-0.17
+0.03
Rushing Yards
107
169
Rush Attempts
25
34
Yards / Rush
4.3
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.04
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Eagles logo
1st Downs
17
16
Passing 1st downs
12
6
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
54%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
33%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Eagles logo
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-13.67
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-17
-10
Sack EPA
-3.48
-2.32
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
85
64
Penalty EPA
-8.21
-6.88

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market68.0%
Model64.8%
Spread Pick
GB logo
Packers+5.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+0.8%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+65
Home nfelo
1,658
Away nfelo
1,641
Home Field
+31.7
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-6.9
Net QB Adjustment
+10.0
Home QB Adjustment
+3.3
Away QB Adjustment
-6.7
Market Regression
-10.3
Final Difference
105.7
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

J. Love headshot

J. Love

Proj. Value
+1.2
Team Elo Adj
-6.7
Value
Ptile
10/27
-5.0
16
11/03
-1.4
38
11/17
4.0
75
11/24
-0.3
48
11/28
6.6
88
12/05
0.6
52
12/15
4.9
80
12/23
0.1
50
12/29
-2.4
32
01/05
-2.4
31
J. Hurts headshot

J. Hurts

Proj. Value
+1.1
Team Elo Adj
+3.3
Value
Ptile
10/20
-0.4
46
10/27
10.7
98
11/03
5.0
80
11/10
3.5
72
11/14
1.1
57
11/24
0.8
53
12/01
-0.5
46
12/08
2.0
62
12/15
8.6
94
12/22
-4.3
21

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Eagles Defense
Packers logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
8
1
Yards / Game
7
1
Passing Yards / Game
29
14
Rushing Yards / Game
6
4

EPA

EPA / Play
9
1
EPA / Pass
8
1
EPA / Rush
8
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
12
Interceptions / Game
20
6
Fumbles / Game
19
1
Turnover EPA / Game
16
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
8
4th Down Efficiency
23
21
RZ Efficiency
10
6
Eagles Offense vs Packers Defense
Eagles logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
5
5
Yards / Game
8
4
Passing Yards / Game
25
22
Rushing Yards / Game
2
7

EPA

EPA / Play
7
5
EPA / Pass
7
5
EPA / Rush
4
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
31
Interceptions / Game
3
3
Fumbles / Game
8
4
Turnover EPA / Game
31
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
7
4th Down Efficiency
3
22
RZ Efficiency
10
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/27
3
W
L
O
11/03
-10
L
L
U
11/17
1
W
L
U
11/24
28
W
W
O
11/28
13
W
W
U
12/05
-3
L
P
O
12/15
17
W
W
U
12/23
34
W
W
U
12/29
-2
L
L
O
01/05
-2
L
L
O
PHI logo

Eagles

9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/03
5
W
L
O
11/10
28
W
W
U
11/14
8
W
W
U
11/24
17
W
W
O
12/01
5
W
W
U
12/08
6
W
L
U
12/15
14
W
W
U
12/22
-3
L
L
O
12/29
34
W
W
O
01/05
7
W
W
U