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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ chargers week 9, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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GB logo
GBPackers
7-0
45
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
53°F
10 mph
38
LACChargers
4-3
LAC logo
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
53°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
9
7
3
14
33
Chargers
7
10
7
14
38

Spread

GB logo
-6

Total

OVER
50.5

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
368
460
Total Plays
56
69
Yards / Play
6.6
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.31
+0.09
Passing Yards
232
375
Comp/Att
21/26(81%)
26/46(57%)
Yards / Pass
8.9
8.2
EPA / Pass
+0.53
-0.05
Rushing Yards
136
85
Rush Attempts
26
21
Yards / Rush
5.2
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.05
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
21
28
Passing 1st downs
10
20
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
60%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
11
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-20.49
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-15
-10
Sack EPA
-4.77
-2.90
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
33
64
Penalty EPA
-6.52
-9.15

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market69.8%
Model69.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-128
Home nfelo
1,584
Away nfelo
1,687
Home Field
+13.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-38.8
Home QB Adjustment
-11.7
Away QB Adjustment
+27.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-145.5
Model Spread
+6.0

Quarterbacks

A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+27.1
Value
Ptile
01/15
14.5
100
01/23
0.2
50
02/06
5.6
85
09/08
7.8
93
09/18
5.6
84
09/25
5.5
84
10/02
15.7
100
10/09
4.3
78
10/16
5.2
82
10/23
6.9
90
P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-11.7
Value
Ptile
12/16
7.4
92
12/26
1.7
59
01/02
-5.3
16
09/11
2.2
67
09/18
4.9
81
09/25
-4.2
23
10/02
3.8
76
10/09
-3.0
32
10/23
-3.9
25
10/31
-1.7
38

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Chargers Defense
Packers logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
2
23
Yards / Game
3
16
Passing Yards / Game
1
10
Rushing Yards / Game
25
20

EPA

EPA / Play
2
29
EPA / Pass
1
28
EPA / Rush
16
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
25
Interceptions / Game
2
15
Fumbles / Game
4
31
Turnover EPA / Game
31
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
32
4th Down Efficiency
12
2
RZ Efficiency
1
26
Chargers Offense vs Packers Defense
Chargers logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
5
22
Yards / Game
6
32
Passing Yards / Game
16
32
Rushing Yards / Game
16
13

EPA

EPA / Play
4
23
EPA / Pass
4
23
EPA / Rush
12
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
10
Interceptions / Game
25
1
Fumbles / Game
12
24
Turnover EPA / Game
7
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
27
4th Down Efficiency
20
3
RZ Efficiency
10
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

10-0
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/15
27
W
W
O
01/23
7
W
W
U
02/06
6
W
W
O
09/08
8
W
W
O
09/18
7
W
L
O
09/25
10
W
W
U
10/02
26
W
W
O
10/09
11
W
W
U
10/16
21
W
W
U
10/23
6
W
L
O
LAC logo

Chargers

6-4
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/16
27
W
W
U
12/26
-14
L
L
O
01/02
5
W
P
O
09/11
7
W
L
U
09/18
-14
L
L
O
09/25
3
W
L
U
10/02
10
W
W
U
10/09
5
W
W
O
10/23
-6
L
L
O
10/31
-3
L
L
U