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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ bills week 15, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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GB logo
GBPackers
10-3
13
TBD
New Era Field
38°F
10 mph
21
BUFBills
7-6
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
38°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
3
7
0
3
13
Bills
1
3
6
3
13

Spread

BUF logo
+3.5

Total

UNDER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
333
253
Total Plays
67
63
Yards / Play
5.0
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.26
-0.15
Passing Yards
175
140
Comp/Att
17/42(40%)
14/27(52%)
Yards / Pass
4.2
5.2
EPA / Pass
-0.33
-0.36
Rushing Yards
158
113
Rush Attempts
24
33
Yards / Rush
6.6
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.23
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
21
13
Passing 1st downs
12
6
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
29%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
16
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-9.49
-1.86
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-10
-18
Sack EPA
-2.32
-5.12
Penalties
9
10
Penalty Yards
70
75
Penalty EPA
-3.96
-10.58

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model57.2%
Spread Pick
BUF logo
Bills+3.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+11.0%
Cover Probability
58.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-5
Home nfelo
1,561
Away nfelo
1,649
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-12.2
Home QB Adjustment
+24.7
Away QB Adjustment
+36.9
Market Regression
+12.8
Final Difference
-50.2
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+36.9
Value
Ptile
09/28
10.4
97
10/02
0.8
55
10/12
3.9
76
10/19
6.7
88
10/26
5.2
83
11/09
11.3
98
11/16
9.0
94
11/23
3.9
76
11/30
5.4
83
12/08
8.3
92
K. Orton headshot

K. Orton

Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+24.7
Value
Ptile
12/29
4.7
82
10/05
2.4
68
10/12
-1.3
41
10/19
-1.7
38
10/26
1.6
62
11/09
2.0
65
11/13
-2.8
31
11/24
4.4
80
11/30
-4.2
25
12/07
0.8
55

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Bills Defense
Packers logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
2
4
Yards / Game
6
4
Passing Yards / Game
3
14
Rushing Yards / Game
10
10

EPA

EPA / Play
3
1
EPA / Pass
2
1
EPA / Rush
12
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
15
Interceptions / Game
2
5
Fumbles / Game
10
10
Turnover EPA / Game
29
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
1
4th Down Efficiency
22
14
RZ Efficiency
11
10
Bills Offense vs Packers Defense
Bills logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
18
14
Yards / Game
24
15
Passing Yards / Game
11
28
Rushing Yards / Game
25
26

EPA

EPA / Play
25
17
EPA / Pass
21
7
EPA / Rush
28
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
25
Interceptions / Game
11
4
Fumbles / Game
15
19
Turnover EPA / Game
24
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
18
4th Down Efficiency
20
23
RZ Efficiency
30
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/28
21
W
W
O
10/02
32
W
W
O
10/12
3
W
W
O
10/19
21
W
W
O
10/26
-21
L
L
O
11/09
41
W
W
O
11/16
33
W
W
O
11/23
3
W
L
U
11/30
5
W
W
U
12/08
6
W
L
O
BUF logo

Bills

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/28
-6
L
L
U
10/05
3
W
W
U
10/12
-15
L
L
O
10/19
1
W
L
U
10/26
20
W
W
O
11/09
-4
L
L
U
11/13
-13
L
L
U
11/24
35
W
W
U
11/30
16
W
W
U
12/07
-7
L
W
U