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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ bills week 15, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DET logo
DETLions
5-8
13
TBD
New Era Field
39°F
7 mph
14
BUFBills
4-9
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
39°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
13
0
0
13
Bills
0
7
0
7
14

Spread

DET logo
+2.5

Total

UNDER
40

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
313
312
Total Plays
56
64
Yards / Play
5.6
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.03
Passing Yards
--
195
Comp/Att
22/30(73%)
13/26(50%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.5
EPA / Pass
+0.07
+0.10
Rushing Yards
105
117
Rush Attempts
26
37
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.2
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
14
20
Passing 1st downs
7
9
Rushing 1st downs
7
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
38%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-9
Sack EPA
--
-2.36
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
--
20
Penalty EPA
--
-1.87

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
+0.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model49.2%
Spread Pick
DET logo
Lions+2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.8%
Cover Probability
53.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-45
Home nfelo
1,285
Away nfelo
1,460
Home Field
+58.1
Base HFA
+58.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+71.6
Home QB Adjustment
+49.1
Away QB Adjustment
-22.5
Market Regression
+10.7
Final Difference
-5.8
Model Spread
+0.5

Quarterbacks

J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
-22.5
Value
Ptile
09/30
4.7
78
10/07
-2.7
29
10/21
3.7
73
10/28
2.6
67
11/04
-9.9
3
11/11
-5.2
17
11/18
-0.3
44
11/22
-2.6
31
12/02
-5.2
17
12/09
-3.6
24
J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.8
Team Elo Adj
+49.1
Value
Ptile
09/16
-6.3
12
09/23
4.7
78
09/30
-15.4
0
10/07
-4.9
18
10/14
-6.0
13
11/25
6.1
85
12/02
5.0
79
12/09
-1.0
40

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Bills Defense
Lions logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
25
19
Yards / Game
24
2
Passing Yards / Game
20
1
Rushing Yards / Game
23
15

EPA

EPA / Play
23
4
EPA / Pass
22
2
EPA / Rush
25
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
14
Interceptions / Game
14
7
Fumbles / Game
18
2
Turnover EPA / Game
17
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
11
4th Down Efficiency
9
13
RZ Efficiency
25
30
Bills Offense vs Lions Defense
Bills logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
30
16
Yards / Game
30
9
Passing Yards / Game
32
25
Rushing Yards / Game
8
11

EPA

EPA / Play
31
15
EPA / Pass
31
24
EPA / Rush
20
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
14
Interceptions / Game
31
29
Fumbles / Game
11
28
Turnover EPA / Game
6
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
12
4th Down Efficiency
31
11
RZ Efficiency
16
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/30
-2
L
W
O
10/07
8
W
W
O
10/21
11
W
W
O
10/28
-14
L
L
U
11/04
-15
L
L
U
11/11
-12
L
L
O
11/18
1
W
W
U
11/22
-7
L
L
U
12/02
-14
L
L
U
12/09
14
W
W
U
BUF logo

Bills

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/30
-22
L
L
U
10/07
1
W
W
U
10/14
-7
L
W
U
10/21
-32
L
L
U
10/29
-19
L
L
U
11/04
-32
L
L
O
11/11
31
W
W
O
11/25
3
W
W
O
12/02
-4
L
L
U
12/09
-4
L
L
O