nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jets @ chargers week 5, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

NYJ logo
NYJJets
1-3
0
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
91°F
8 mph
31
LACChargers
3-1
LAC logo
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
91°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
0
0
0
0
Chargers
7
14
7
3
31

Spread

LAC logo
-7

Total

UNDER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Jets logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
151
439
Total Plays
54
71
Yards / Play
2.8
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.43
+0.13
Passing Yards
60
277
Comp/Att
12/31(39%)
20/28(71%)
Yards / Pass
1.9
9.9
EPA / Pass
-0.70
+0.49
Rushing Yards
91
162
Rush Attempts
21
40
Yards / Rush
4.3
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.27
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
Jets logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
11
21
Passing 1st downs
4
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
8%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
1
12
3rd Down Attempts
12
18
Red Zone %
0%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Jets logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.40
-5.13
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-14
-11
Sack EPA
-4.57
-3.17
Penalties
12
5
Penalty Yards
94
76
Penalty EPA
-11.21
-8.41

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-9.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model78.0%
Spread Pick
LAC logo
Chargers-7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+12.4%
Cover Probability
55.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+261
Home nfelo
1,584
Away nfelo
1,455
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+25.1
Home QB Adjustment
+25.1
Away QB Adjustment
-0.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
220.2
Model Spread
-9.0

Quarterbacks

E. Smith headshot

E. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-0.0
Value
Ptile
11/24
-10.7
3
12/01
-8.0
7
12/08
3.7
75
12/15
-3.8
26
12/22
6.5
88
12/29
4.4
81
09/07
1.1
58
09/14
-1.4
40
09/22
-1.3
41
09/28
-3.9
26
P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+25.1
Value
Ptile
12/08
5.3
84
12/12
-0.4
48
12/22
-3.2
30
12/29
0.6
54
01/05
0.5
53
01/12
0.1
51
09/08
0.8
55
09/14
8.7
93
09/21
5.0
82
09/28
8.5
93

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Chargers Defense
Jets logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
28
12
Yards / Game
22
10
Passing Yards / Game
23
1
Rushing Yards / Game
3
25

EPA

EPA / Play
24
23
EPA / Pass
29
21
EPA / Rush
10
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
16
Interceptions / Game
17
28
Fumbles / Game
10
6
Turnover EPA / Game
15
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
24
4th Down Efficiency
7
3
RZ Efficiency
32
14
Chargers Offense vs Jets Defense
Chargers logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
17
24
Yards / Game
19
7
Passing Yards / Game
8
30
Rushing Yards / Game
30
5

EPA

EPA / Play
12
26
EPA / Pass
7
24
EPA / Rush
27
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
8
Interceptions / Game
26
30
Fumbles / Game
2
21
Turnover EPA / Game
23
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
30
4th Down Efficiency
19
1
RZ Efficiency
15
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYJ logo

Jets

4-6
SU
3-5-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/24
-16
L
L
U
12/01
-20
L
L
U
12/08
10
W
W
O
12/15
-10
L
P
O
12/22
11
W
W
U
12/29
13
W
W
U
09/07
5
W
L
U
09/14
-7
L
P
O
09/22
-8
L
L
O
09/28
-7
L
L
U
LAC logo

Chargers

8-2
SU
9-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/08
23
W
W
O
12/12
7
W
W
U
12/22
13
W
W
U
12/29
3
W
L
O
01/05
17
W
W
U
01/12
-7
L
W
U
09/08
-1
L
W
U
09/14
9
W
W
O
09/21
12
W
W
U
09/28
19
W
W
O