nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jets @ buccaneers week 10, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

NYJ logo
NYJJets
4-5
10
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
79°F
16 mph
15
TBBuccaneers
2-6
TB logo
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
79°F
16 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
3
0
7
10
Buccaneers
3
0
6
6
15

Spread

TB logo
-1

Total

UNDER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Jets logo
Buccaneers logo
Total Yards
275
271
Total Plays
64
67
Yards / Play
4.3
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.26
-0.13
Passing Yards
219
181
Comp/Att
23/39(59%)
17/34(50%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
5.3
EPA / Pass
-0.15
-0.03
Rushing Yards
56
90
Rush Attempts
19
32
Yards / Rush
2.9
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.37
-0.31
Downs & Conversions
Jets logo
Buccaneers logo
1st Downs
15
17
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
2
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
20%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
16
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Jets logo
Buccaneers logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.31
-3.43
Sacks
6
1
Sack Yards
-43
-6
Sack EPA
-7.71
-2.10
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
77
50
Penalty EPA
-9.48
-5.51

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TB logo
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market52.2%
Model56.0%
Spread Pick
TB logo
Buccaneers-1.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+5.0%
Cover Probability
54.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+85
Home nfelo
1,435
Away nfelo
1,402
Home Field
+76.7
Base HFA
+56.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-25.6
Home QB Adjustment
-15.0
Away QB Adjustment
+10.6
Market Regression
+19.2
Final Difference
41.8
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

J. McCown headshot

J. McCown

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+10.6
Value
Ptile
11/27
-3.6
22
09/10
-2.7
34
09/17
-0.6
48
09/24
1.2
61
10/01
-4.5
22
10/08
-2.4
36
10/15
-0.0
52
10/22
0.6
56
10/29
3.2
75
11/02
1.6
64
R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-15.0
Value
Ptile
09/15
7.2
90
09/25
-13.2
0
10/02
-7.1
8
10/09
0.4
52
10/17
-4.1
19
10/30
-3.7
22
11/06
-5.2
15
11/27
3.6
76
12/05
-7.9
6
01/01
2.3
67

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Jets logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
23
22
Yards / Game
28
32
Passing Yards / Game
22
3
Rushing Yards / Game
19
23

EPA

EPA / Play
23
28
EPA / Pass
18
29
EPA / Rush
23
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
13
Interceptions / Game
13
15
Fumbles / Game
23
9
Turnover EPA / Game
20
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
32
4th Down Efficiency
8
1
RZ Efficiency
10
18
Buccaneers Offense vs Jets Defense
Buccaneers logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
18
22
Yards / Game
7
26
Passing Yards / Game
1
5
Rushing Yards / Game
27
24

EPA

EPA / Play
13
22
EPA / Pass
11
22
EPA / Rush
25
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
7
Interceptions / Game
20
18
Fumbles / Game
32
8
Turnover EPA / Game
8
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
10
4th Down Efficiency
13
14
RZ Efficiency
23
21

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYJ logo

Jets

5-5
SU
7-2-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/01
20
W
W
U
09/10
-9
L
L
U
09/17
-25
L
L
O
09/24
14
W
W
U
10/01
3
W
W
O
10/08
3
W
W
U
10/15
-7
L
W
U
10/22
-3
L
P
O
10/29
-5
L
W
O
11/02
13
W
W
O
TB logo

Buccaneers

3-7
SU
1-8-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/24
-7
L
L
O
01/01
1
W
L
U
09/17
22
W
W
U
09/24
-17
L
L
O
10/01
2
W
L
O
10/05
-5
L
L
U
10/15
-5
L
L
O
10/22
-3
L
P
O
10/29
-14
L
L
U
11/05
-20
L
L
U