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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jets @ broncos week 5, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NYJ logo
NYJJets
1-3
31
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
73°F
9 mph
21
DENBroncos
1-3
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
73°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
3
3
10
7
23
Broncos
7
6
0
8
21

Spread

NYJ logo
+2

Total

OVER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Jets logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
407
310
Total Plays
62
58
Yards / Play
6.6
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.11
-0.13
Passing Yards
173
169
Comp/Att
19/26(73%)
20/31(65%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
5.5
EPA / Pass
-0.28
-0.34
Rushing Yards
234
141
Rush Attempts
32
23
Yards / Rush
7.3
6.1
EPA / Rush
+0.23
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
Jets logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
18
18
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
25%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Jets logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
3
Turnover EPA
+3.57
-7.75
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-26
-27
Sack EPA
-5.51
-12.80
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
71
31
Penalty EPA
-11.06
-5.06

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.0
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market54.2%
Model62.0%
Spread Pick
DEN logo
Broncos-2.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+16.4%
Cover Probability
58.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+135
Home nfelo
1,468
Away nfelo
1,492
Home Field
+73.3
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.0
Time Adj
+15.4
Net QB Adjustment
+86.3
Home QB Adjustment
+16.5
Away QB Adjustment
-69.7
Market Regression
-1.8
Final Difference
84.9
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

Z. Wilson headshot

Z. Wilson

Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-69.7
Value
Ptile
10/16
-6.0
13
10/23
-3.8
24
10/30
-3.0
28
11/06
1.5
63
11/20
-7.3
8
12/18
-5.0
18
12/22
-11.5
1
09/17
-7.8
9
09/24
-5.5
16
10/01
4.0
75
R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+16.5
Value
Ptile
11/27
-5.3
16
12/04
-0.5
48
12/11
-0.2
51
12/25
-10.1
2
01/01
1.1
60
01/08
2.3
71
09/10
1.5
59
09/17
0.2
51
09/24
0.2
51
10/01
4.4
78

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Broncos Defense
Jets logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
29
27
Yards / Game
31
29
Passing Yards / Game
30
14
Rushing Yards / Game
22
30

EPA

EPA / Play
31
24
EPA / Pass
32
26
EPA / Rush
32
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
6
Interceptions / Game
22
19
Fumbles / Game
32
1
Turnover EPA / Game
3
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
2
4th Down Efficiency
8
10
RZ Efficiency
32
21
Broncos Offense vs Jets Defense
Broncos logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
20
10
Yards / Game
26
2
Passing Yards / Game
13
4
Rushing Yards / Game
19
25

EPA

EPA / Play
20
4
EPA / Pass
20
3
EPA / Rush
19
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
4
Interceptions / Game
4
5
Fumbles / Game
27
13
Turnover EPA / Game
15
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
12
4th Down Efficiency
4
5
RZ Efficiency
19
7

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYJ logo

Jets

1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/04
-5
L
L
O
12/11
-8
L
W
U
12/18
-3
L
L
U
12/22
-16
L
L
U
01/01
-17
L
L
U
01/08
-5
L
L
U
09/11
6
W
W
U
09/17
-20
L
L
O
09/24
-5
L
L
U
10/01
-3
L
W
O
DEN logo

Broncos

3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/04
-1
L
W
U
12/11
-6
L
W
O
12/18
9
W
W
O
12/25
-37
L
L
O
01/01
-3
L
W
O
01/08
3
W
L
O
09/10
-1
L
L
U
09/17
-2
L
L
O
09/24
-50
L
L
O
10/01
3
W
P
O