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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ texans week 15, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
2-11
20
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
21
HOUTexans
7-6
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
13
7
0
20
Texans
0
3
6
10
19

Spread

JAX logo
+3.5

Total

OVER
39.5

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
150
387
Total Plays
50
78
Yards / Play
3.0
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.20
-0.16
Passing Yards
83
--
Comp/Att
12/28(43%)
29/47(62%)
Yards / Pass
3.0
--
EPA / Pass
-0.57
-0.16
Rushing Yards
67
79
Rush Attempts
20
31
Yards / Rush
3.4
2.5
EPA / Rush
-0.18
-0.31
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
9
23
Passing 1st downs
4
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
23%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.51
-10.53
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-9
--
Sack EPA
-3.28
--
Penalties
12
6
Penalty Yards
91
71
Penalty EPA
-3.51
-6.99

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+79
Home nfelo
1,439
Away nfelo
1,390
Home Field
+41.8
Base HFA
+58.1
Divisional Adj
-26.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
-10.4
Net QB Adjustment
-12.1
Home QB Adjustment
-4.8
Away QB Adjustment
+7.3
Market Regression
-35.1
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

R. Bortles headshot

R. Bortles

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+7.3
Value
Ptile
10/02
2.6
69
10/16
-2.3
32
10/23
-3.2
25
10/27
6.5
88
11/06
2.1
65
11/13
2.2
65
11/20
-2.3
31
11/27
2.2
66
12/04
-3.6
23
12/11
-0.3
46
B. Osweiler headshot

B. Osweiler

Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
-4.8
Value
Ptile
10/02
1.0
56
10/09
-8.0
5
10/16
0.5
53
10/24
-2.8
28
10/30
-5.8
13
11/13
-2.0
34
11/21
-0.1
47
11/27
-3.3
24
12/04
1.1
57
12/11
-7.3
7

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense
Jaguars logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
25
12
Yards / Game
22
1
Passing Yards / Game
11
7
Rushing Yards / Game
23
11

EPA

EPA / Play
24
3
EPA / Pass
28
4
EPA / Rush
25
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
22
Interceptions / Game
21
13
Fumbles / Game
27
25
Turnover EPA / Game
10
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
7
4th Down Efficiency
25
3
RZ Efficiency
11
16
Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Texans logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
28
24
Yards / Game
29
6
Passing Yards / Game
28
1
Rushing Yards / Game
7
18

EPA

EPA / Play
31
21
EPA / Pass
29
9
EPA / Rush
26
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
18
Interceptions / Game
25
32
Fumbles / Game
10
24
Turnover EPA / Game
11
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
9
4th Down Efficiency
29
12
RZ Efficiency
31
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/02
3
W
W
O
10/16
1
W
W
U
10/23
-17
L
L
O
10/27
-14
L
L
O
11/06
-5
L
W
U
11/13
-3
L
L
O
11/20
-7
L
L
U
11/27
-7
L
W
O
12/04
-10
L
L
U
12/11
-9
L
L
O
HOU logo

Texans

5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/02
7
W
W
O
10/09
-18
L
L
O
10/16
3
W
P
O
10/24
-18
L
L
U
10/30
7
W
W
U
11/13
3
W
W
O
11/21
-7
L
L
O
11/27
-8
L
L
U
12/04
-8
L
L
U
12/11
5
W
W
U