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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ texans week 12, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
7-3
24
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
21
HOUTexans
6-4
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
3
10
8
3
24
Texans
0
7
7
7
21

Spread

JAX logo
-1

Total

UNDER
48

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
447
352
Total Plays
69
58
Yards / Play
6.5
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.04
Passing Yards
--
261
Comp/Att
23/39(59%)
26/36(72%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.32
+0.02
Rushing Yards
81
91
Rush Attempts
30
18
Yards / Rush
2.7
5.1
EPA / Rush
-0.33
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
54%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.28
--
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-43
Sack EPA
--
-7.18
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
35
49
Penalty EPA
-5.12
-9.27

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
JAX logo
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market52.3%
Model53.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-56
Home nfelo
1,456
Away nfelo
1,562
Home Field
+31.9
Base HFA
+44.4
Divisional Adj
-20.0
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.5
Time Adj
-8.0
Net QB Adjustment
+17.9
Home QB Adjustment
+25.6
Away QB Adjustment
+7.7
Market Regression
+0.8
Final Difference
-24.3
Model Spread
+1.5

Quarterbacks

W. Lawrence headshot

W. Lawrence

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+7.7
Value
Ptile
09/10
1.7
61
09/17
-5.3
17
09/24
3.0
69
10/01
2.3
65
10/08
2.7
68
10/15
-2.6
32
10/19
6.6
89
10/29
1.8
61
11/12
-9.8
3
11/19
9.7
97
C. Stroud headshot

C. Stroud

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+25.6
Value
Ptile
09/10
-3.2
28
09/17
0.6
53
09/24
5.2
82
10/01
5.3
83
10/08
0.3
52
10/15
-2.8
30
10/29
-0.5
46
11/05
12.9
99
11/12
4.5
78
11/19
-1.8
38

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense
Jaguars logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
15
11
Yards / Game
12
15
Passing Yards / Game
22
6
Rushing Yards / Game
23
8

EPA

EPA / Play
15
13
EPA / Pass
19
16
EPA / Rush
28
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
15
Interceptions / Game
19
15
Fumbles / Game
31
25
Turnover EPA / Game
7
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
6
4th Down Efficiency
27
18
RZ Efficiency
21
15
Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Texans logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
13
16
Yards / Game
15
19
Passing Yards / Game
21
20
Rushing Yards / Game
28
9

EPA

EPA / Play
14
14
EPA / Pass
11
11
EPA / Rush
27
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
18
Interceptions / Game
1
12
Fumbles / Game
13
13
Turnover EPA / Game
32
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
8
4th Down Efficiency
31
17
RZ Efficiency
16
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/10
10
W
W
O
09/17
-8
L
L
U
09/24
-20
L
L
O
10/01
16
W
W
U
10/08
5
W
W
U
10/15
17
W
W
O
10/19
7
W
W
O
10/29
10
W
W
U
11/12
-31
L
L
U
11/19
20
W
W
O
HOU logo

Texans

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/10
-16
L
L
U
09/17
-11
L
L
O
09/24
20
W
W
O
10/01
24
W
W
U
10/08
-2
L
W
U
10/15
7
W
W
U
10/29
-2
L
L
U
11/05
2
W
L
O
11/12
3
W
W
O
11/19
5
W
L
U